FWIW, Semi equip market cap weighted indices at key chart point.
I programmed my downloader to calculate an index for the large market cap semi equip companies (AMAT, KLAC, TER) and one for the remainder of the 50 odd companies in the SI semi equip group. It multiplies each stock's shares outstanding by its daily OHLC and volume, and then calculates an average of each of the totals. It's useful for identifying stocks exhibiting relative strength or weakness.
I'm by no means a TA type but there does seem to be more than pure coincidence to many chart patterns, especially longer term tops and bottoms. The reason may be no more complicated than the fact that so many people watch and trade off them, which I think is in itself reason enough to be aware of them.
On a daily basis, the small caps closed Wed very near the exact low close on 11/12/97 and 11/6/97. Some newcomers in the group (like CYMI) prevent calculation of weekly data back to the Aug 95 highs.
On a daily basis, the large caps did have a lower close than Wednesday's on 11/12/97. On a weekly basis, Wedneday's close was on the 10/31/97 intraweek low and also on the weekly close at the peak highs in August 95. If we head north from here, the week of 11/14 will be a spike bottom.
Based on the weekly data, several common TA indicators (4-23-40 SMA, 10 week RSI, 10 / 21 week CCI Average) and the presence of plainly visible continuation patterns generate a bleak picture unless we rally off this level.
I can export the data with OHLCV fields to .txt or .xls format and email it to anyone who wants to take a look. |
