Telebras (TBH) & Brazil Message Board

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Strategies & Market Trends : Telebras (TBH) & Brazil

TBH 0.750

-14.0%

3:59 PM EST

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To: Weekapaug who wrote (451)	11/28/1997 3:00:00 AM
From: Steve Fancy	Read Replies (1) of 22640

Hi Ken, Well, my interpretations could be totally off base. I read the news and make judgements accordingly...highly possible my perception of what's going on over there is totally off base and I've just been extremely lucky. The stock buyback if I understand correctly was more an attempt to cause the stock to reverse course...or at least stop falling, a token purchase. I think they believe their country will weather the storm just fine, and are doing everything they can to convince the rest of the world. I think the intent was/is there to follow through with the buyback, but obviously it's not something they want to do unless absolutely necessary. They don't need to spend the money. The stock is trading at a '97 P/E of 11, '98 P/E of 9, and has an estimated Long Term Growth Rate of 18%. I wish I had a schedule of the remaining budget votes (5?). It looks like they are determined to blast right through them. The question is quickly becoming the valuation of the companies. PW has a reduced price target of $144, where other firms are maintaining targets of $170 plus. I thought I read that the privatization would likely generate much more cash than speculated. If we're looking at the potential of 170 plus in July, I would think we'll be trading back between 120 and 130 pending the release of the long awaited privatization details, such as the specifics on how the shares in 13 plus companies will be distributed amongst shareholders. My gut heading into year-end and the release of the details in January (I believe) is that we've got nowhere to go but up...assuming of course that concerns over their economy continue to stablize. Good luck and Happy Thanksgiving. sf

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