Bill, we are entering the 401K season next week and all the lemings are buying stocks. Therefore, asuming of no unexpected, unpleasent surprises we will have an upside bias.
Tokyo got some rest and it may reverse, still the big numbers are next Friday. Today numbers will have some influence also.
We are heading to a 2 pronged economic scenario,
1. Inflation in services around 4%
2. Deflation in manufactured goods around 4% to 6%
Interesting to see teh Fed's action, as GDP will slow down to below 2%, personal bankrupcies will rise and retail sales will slow.
Which will result in stagnation and profit erosion for many big cap companies. Therefore I do not see the long bond below 6% by a meaningfull margin, and I see a continuation of stock market downdraft.
As to the problems in SE Asia and India, it will be a slow process of recovery. It is interesting that no one is mentioning the former USRR which are unable to get out of their troubles even with wast natural resources.
Haim
BTW the bigest joke going around on WS is that MU is a comodity company and the "screw driver" marketing companies such as DELL, CPQ and GTW will benefit from lower prices! GEEE how about comparing apples to carrots. Speaking of ignorance!!
No competition anymore, are we not in the position to buy the same components at cheap prices and sell boxes??
I must finish now I am going to buy several screw drivers, set up a new web page and will go public - expectation to raise several million cool $$$$. |
