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Politics : View from the Center and Left
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To: Dale Baker who wrote (195750)8/4/2012 11:59:18 AM
From: bentway  Read Replies (1) of 542060
 
"But Intrade isn't just about betting. Its users are -- taken together -- shockingly good at correctly forecasting election results.Intrade bettors correctly picked the winner of every single state during the 2004 presidential election. In 2008, they missed two -- wrongly calling Indiana for John McCain and Missouri for Barack Obama.

And that is way, way more accurate than most single polls -- to say nothing of the predictions offered by the professional pundit class.

"Most of the evidence certainly suggests looking at prediction markets will give you a better handle on elections than looking at polling data," said Forrest Nelson, a professor at the University of Iowa, who helps run the Iowa Electronic Market."

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