Mike Allen's Thursday morning political bits and pieces newsletter.
----------------------------------------------------------
PAUL RYAN BANDWAGON BUILDS --Wall Street Journal lead editorial, "Why Not Paul Ryan? Romney can win a big election over big issues. He'll lose a small one ": "Against the advice of every Beltway bedwetter, he has put entitlement reform at the center of the public agenda-before it becomes a crisis that requires savage cuts. And he has done so as part of a larger vision that stresses tax reform for faster growth, spending restraint to prevent a Greek-like budget fate, and a Jack Kemp-like belief in opportunity for all. He represents the GOP's new generation of reformers that includes such Governors as Louisiana's Bobby Jindal and New Jersey's Chris Christie. As important, Mr. Ryan can make his case in a reasonable and unthreatening way. He doesn't get mad, or at least he doesn't show it. Like Reagan, he has a basic cheerfulness and Midwestern equanimity."
--Rich Lowry, editor of National Review, writing on POLITICO: "Overly safe is its own risk ... Ryan would inject a jolt of energy into the campaign and reorient the debate around policy. The Romney campaign doesn't have to be reckless. It does have to have a pulse. It doesn't have to commit ideological hari-kari. It does have to have an unmistakable substantive content. At times over the past few months, it has seemed that the Romney campaign has embarked on audacious experiment to see if it's possible to run a presidential campaign devoid of real interest. With the choice of Ryan, that would change in an instant." politi.co
MARK HALPERIN, in the forthcoming TIME: "The two campaigns would rather not discuss tough issues like the deficit, so they need distractions. Senior strategists in both camps are veterans of scorched-earth election victories, and they don't believe voters are turned off by negative ads. ... Twitter, ... super PACs ... [have] removed many practical and moral restraints; most everything now, even spouses, is considered fair game. ...
"[A] fight over anything but the weak economy benefits Obama ... But the Republicans think Obama's personal likability has been able to protect his favorability ratings ... , and they hope he will dirty his good name by mud wrestling."
FIRST LOOK -- Resurgent Republic memo from Whit Ayres and Luke Frans, '2012 Voter Enthusiasm Favors Republicans ': 'Republican-leaning voting blocs are more enthusiastic to vote this November, which could be the deciding factor in a turnout election. As we head into the final campaign stretch, President Obama faces the unwelcoming reality that he must close the voter enthusiasm gap and improve his performance among key voting subgroups if he is to be successful in his bid for reelection. When looking at those voters who say they are extremely enthusiastic to vote in the presidential election, Republicans hold a double-digit advantage over Democrats, 62 to 49 percent, and the subgroups most likely to support Governor Romney register higher enthusiasm than those backing President Obama.
'Reliable Republican demographics , such as Protestants, Evangelicals, and white men, score above the median rate of those who are extremely enthusiastic to turnout and far out pace several traditional Democratic voting groups, including Hispanic voters, unmarried, and young voters (18-to-29-year-olds). African-American voters are the exception among Obama supporters and register enthusiasm on par with Republicans. The higher enthusiasm among Republicans overall will help shrink the traditional Democratic identification advantage on Election Day, which stood at seven points during the 2008 wave election. As a result, national polling with a Democratic voter edge greater than the 2008 margin should be viewed with skepticism.' |
