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Technology Stocks : Cymer (CYMI)

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To: Holyman who wrote (10687)11/28/1997 12:51:00 PM
From: Peter Paulissen  Read Replies (2) of 25960
 
Re: Large Short Position and Mark Johnson Reports.

I am starting to feel uncomfortable about Cymer's prospects because of the large short position and some items in Mark Johnson's reports.

On the subject of the large short position let us go back to the basic fundamentals:

Except for hedging purposes, people sell stock short because they think it will go down in price, and they cover their shorts when the fundamentals look good and the stock is over-sold.

In Cymer's case, the large short position (except for some input from the Fleckensteins) would indicate that the professionals are in there and expect the price to go lower. Also, the large increase after the price is way down is troublesome.

In light of the large short position, I start to wonder whether there is more to the problems discussed in Mark Johnson's reports on getting the laser to work in full-scale production.

Cymer ramped up production of its lasers about oney year ago. Considering the very large amounts of money going into these semi-conductor fabs, I had expected several to be up and running quite some time ago and Cymer to be right there to celebrate. However, when asked about this in the conference call on Oct. 23, Akins stuttered and said to his knowledge there was one running at Samsung. He gave no details on how well it was doing.

I would feel a lot better if I knew more about this technology. For instance: where does the laser fit into the manufacturing and testing time frme of the steppers, and where do the steppers fit into the construction and commissioning of the semiconductor fab?

In short what would be the normal time required between shipping a laser and full-scale production?
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