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Strategies & Market Trends : The 56 Point TA; Charts With an Attitude

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To: Doug R who wrote (8517)11/28/1997 1:14:00 PM
From: Mark[ox5]  Read Replies (1) of 79339
 
My post from mid October on QUST thread:

Back to business:

As for preferred vs common . I dont expect a 40% premium today.. but I'd except
some kind of premium :) And I think anyone should buy the stock based on what they
think the common will do. And I think the common is still undervalued, that is why I am
a buyer.

The common will not return to $5-$6..ever. It will be lucky to return to $7-$8 (lucky
for people late to the game)

Here is why I am a buyer..
For the 1st 6 months of the year QUST has revenues of 9.05M
and earnings of .27 cents.
(I know this is simplistic but play along) Lets say there is no growth for the rest of the
year. So we double these #'s and have
Rev: 18.1 M
EPS: 0.54

For the 1st half of 1996 to 2nd half of 1997 QUST has had revenue growth of 61%
and earnings growth of 68%. This is unsustainable long term but lets take an easy
CONSERVATIVE # of 20% growth rate.
So a fairly valued stock : P/E = growth rate. Im using 20% instead of say 35% or even
60% ... to be conservative

EPS for full year 1997 0.54 * 20 P/E = $10.80 by December 1997 (for the common)
If I go on a limb and say the company will even grow EPS .. oh I dont know, lets say it
can make .60 instead of .54, that gives us
.60 * 12 = $12.00 for common. Now compared to today that isnt so wonderful but I
bought last week in mid-8's. And I bought the preferred. And remember I used all
conservative #'s.

Now here is the kicker!!!!!!!!!!!!
Im saying REVENUE of 18.1 M for the full year.

In Septmeber QUST acquired 2 companies:

9/5/97 - PCI, which has revenues of approximately $3 million and operating income of
approximately $300,000, will become a wholly-owned subsidiary of Questron. The
acquisition will be immediately accretive to earnings.

9/23 - California Fasteners had revenues of $11 million for the eleven months ended
July 31, 1997 and an operating profit of approximately $2.0 million, after certain
adjustments for non-recurring expenses. The acquisition is expected to be immediately
accretive to Questron's earnings per share.

The 2nd is more important than the 1st but together, additional $14 M in revenues..
giving QUST 73% more revenue than as a stand alone company. 73%!! And this is
IMMEDIATELY ACCREDATIVE. Now there will be costs and expenses integrating
the companies into QUST's infrastructure.. and the 1st company I havent looked into
enough but it doesnt look profitable at this point. But hey I dont want to preach to the
choir. I have a $12 common stock (in 2 months) in my head without these 2 companies
included.

I dont usually hold really long term, but I bought QUSTP and GECM last week and
intend to hold both long term, and QUSTP will be going into my IRA if the damn
paperwork gets done before it shoots up some more. *sigh* Anyway in this humble
opinion we are just at the beginning.

Welcome to constructive criticism and opinions.

Good luck and here is to a nice, long climb up,
Mark
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