Way too peaky on AAPL for me to have an interest. We bottom fishers get nosebleeds at that sort of altitude...
And NOK hasn't actually made a solid case yet for thinking it's close to finding a bottom... it seems a heavy weight pulling it down, and while the line keeps running out, you can't call it a bottom. Couple of little bait fish attacking the bait on the way down... doesn't have them defining much that is useful in terms of structure... while the steady drift lower continues, and the little bounces you see now and then appear mostly to show they've not got anything like the mass required to grab it and prevent it reaching bottom...
FWIW, pinch chart patterns often will accompany the formation of a major bottom in a stock that's been in a major decline, as and when it reaches a point of being a bit too oversold... but, here, you also have to note that NOK already has a fairly obvious history of forming dramatic "pinch" chart patterns... with that we see recently not exactly being a thing that's overly novel in the trade, much less unique. It would perhaps be more meaningful now if there weren't already that pattern in the history.
In Nov of 2008 NOK pinched hard at $12 to $14... and in July of 2010 it pinched hard again at $8 to $9...
And, yet, here we are bumping around down near $2... with a new pinch formed, just broken, that isn't showing any reason it's different than the others...
The problem for NOK is that even given the extraordinary volatility in the indicators, it's consistently been the pattern in the bottoms in ADX, and not the peaks, that have defined the direction price follows in the trade...
Why is it, anyway, that you tend to see the declines in NOK stock strongly repeating a pattern in concentration of the declines in April, May and June, each year ?
Whatever the reason for that... I don't think it's reasonable to assume there's been a break in the trend in the pattern, until you see it moving up in April, May and June, instead of making its annual 50% plunge ?
I still agree with you that as we approach the end of the first quarter, we should be able to read the tea leaves in the fundamentals well enough to make a call... but, still need to see NOK manage to NOT shed another 50% in April, May and June of 2013 before calling that trend dead... |
