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Pastimes : Ask Mohan about the Market

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To: robnhood who wrote (9728)11/28/1997 6:07:00 PM
From: John Hunt  Read Replies (1) of 18056
 
rrman,

It takes more than that to stump me. Not quite the same article, but similar.

:-))

John

biz.yahoo.com

In case this one vanishes also:

*******

FOCUS-Russia in IMF talks as money floods out

By Jonathan Lynn

MOSCOW, Nov 28 (Reuters) - Russia is in talks with the International Monetary Fund as billions of dollars flood out of its beleaguered bond market, a top minister said on Friday.

First Deputy Prime Minister Anatoly Chubais, in charge of economic reforms, told reporters that two senior officials had flown to Washington this week for talks with the IMF, but had not yet discussed the ''specific terms'' of a loan.

Chubais said Russia's financial situation was now extremely difficult, as the government faces a huge wage arrears bill.

Money is flooding out of the government securities market as foreign investors retreat from emerging markets.

The world financial crisis has driven up borrowing costs at home and abroad. The IMF has suspended its $10 billion three-year loan because of Russia's poor tax collection performance and Russia has had to postpone two major oil privatisations.

At the same time the cash-strapped government is struggling to pay off trillions of roubles of wage arrears by the year-end -- a deadline set by President Boris Yeltsin who has staked much political capital on eliminating the wage debt.

The government, faced with low tax collection, must pay around 10.2 trillion roubles ($1.7 billion), by January 1, 1998.

Ministers are to report to Yeltsin on Monday on the economy and the wage issue will top the agenda.

''Paying the wages is very difficult, perhaps the most difficult thing in the last five years,'' said Chubais, who earlier this month was sacked as finance minister.

The world market crisis, which hit Russia with full force a month ago, had made it far harder for the government to handle the financial problems, he said.

The government was now preparing a package of measures to shield Russian markets from global market turbulence, he said.

''We are preparing an additional package of decisions whose purpose is to defend the Russian financial market from the threat of the world financial crisis,'' he said.

He declined to say what measures were under preparation, but said the package would be ready in seven or eight days.

Earlier banking sources said Central Bank First Deputy Chairman Sergei Aleksashenko, and Sergei Vasilyev, first deputy chairman of the government administration, had held talks this week with the IMF and World Bank.

Chubais said a fund mission would come to Moscow in a week and a half for routine talks. Itar-Tass news agency had previously reported from Washington that a fund mission was arriving on Monday to discuss the suspended loan.

''But there are questions which we consider it necessary to discuss. This was the aim of Vasilyev and Aleksashenko's trip,'' Chubais said.

Chubais was asked whether the two men had gone to seek a $5 billion emergency loan from the IMF, as stated in some media. ''Specific tasks with figures were not set, specific terms were not discussed,'' he said.

But in the difficult financial situation the government would have to respond to continuing heavy capital outflows.

''Unfortunately, as of today the outflow has not stopped, and that is exactly why we are talking about the seriousness of the situation,'' he said.

Chubais said he could not say how much money had left the country, but dismissed a figure of $9 billion as far too high. Last week Central Bank Chairman Sergei Dubinin said the amount of money leaving Russia was close to $5 billion.

Foreign investors sold Russian Treasury bills heavily when global market turmoil spread to Russia late last month.

But because foreign investors must repatriate proceeds from the T-bill market through one-month currency forwards contracts, the impact of the sales is being felt only now on the rouble.

Yields on short-term T-bills rose above 30 percent on Friday, above the central bank's refinancing rate of 28 percent, and dealers said they could rise to the mid thirties next week.

''Rates are under pressure. We think this level of yields is only as low as it is through aggressive intervention of the central bank,'' said Troika Dialog fixed income chief Robert Devane.

The market is also suffering from persistent rumours -- denied by the central bank -- that leading Russian banks face difficulties after the drop in stock and bond prices.

Aleksashenko and Vasilyev also had talks at the World Bank about a $500-800 million loan to restructure the coal sector and a $600 million structural adjustment loan, banking sources said.

The World Bank's board of directors will decide on December 18 whether to approve the loans.

The World Bank loans are not earmarked for any specific purpose and the Russian government can use the money for whatever it wants. But the bank will take the fund's stance on Russia into account when it decides whether to make the loans.
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