< why the big spread >
Typically, wider spreads occur at tops and bottoms. Finally,
at lows, holders refuse to sell, and the buyers have not yet
decided they have to 'pay up' , and stubbornly maintain their
bids at perceived support levels. Watch for the 'Bid Size' to
increase, as more buyers reveal their interest. Then the bid
will edge up 1/16... and some of the low bidders will join the
increasing bids. This has the appearance of 'drifting upward'
like a helium balloon. Not a rally, just a drift up. This will go
until the first resistance is hit, where some Very short-term
'scalpers' will try to grab their 1/2 point profit. Then follows
a quick sell-off back to the low on vanishing volume.
Then if all is ok, a rally will develop.
Incidentally, LGND is just under its 200-day MA at 13 1/8,
and just bounced off the Lower 20% band on the 50-day MA.
With the recent dilutive news out of the way, and the technical
decline satisfied, it could now rally back to 14, putting it
back above the 200-day MA. Watch the volume. Today's
light volume was ok, since it was an 'inside day'. But to get
out of this bearish zone, LGND needs a solid volum up-day,
say 300K sh with close over 13 1/2. Then over 14 1/2, up
to the 50-day MA at 15 5/8. Then we'll see.
Over the next few days, if that up-day to 13 1/2+ cannot
occur, then we may get a 'clean-out' decline down to 11 3/4
to 12. Reading this thread, there are still too many get-even
sentiments being expressed. LGND needs more investors
looking for the Michael Murphy type targets of $125.
Hopefully we don't need to go back to 9 - but who knows?
The next 2 weeks should be good, with that Seattle
biotech conference around Dec.13. Jim McCammet earlier
said 'buy LGND up to 16', so I expect it will get near there
in next 2 weeks. We'll see if a big rally can get going - say
to 17 1/2. There will be trouble getting through 15 3/4 to 16.
Seasonals are positive now. And no matter how I stretch,
I can't see how Asia can have a significant negative impact
on LGND.
So, all-in-all, look for price improvement. Today's 1/8 point
is a beginning. Who knows, it may have been the last chance
in history to buy LGND below 13. Let's see - 12 1/2 * 10 = 125.
Wow, a 10-bagger! Keep up that wall of worry.
Good luck!
Herbert |
