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Technology Stocks : Cymer (CYMI)

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To: D.J.Smyth who wrote (10694)	11/28/1997 6:28:00 PM
From: Sorin A. David	Read Replies (2) of 25960

S&P Report on CYMI Hope I am not breaking any rules here, but here is an excerpt from the latest S&P Evaluation as of 11/14/97. Look at the estimated price ranges based on growth rates, etc. Also keep in mind that the 35% growth rate used by S&P is lower than the 40% published by Cymer itself. I think the lows have been seen, now let's see the highs... COMPANY :Cymer Inc TICKER :CYMI EXCHANGE:NNM BUSINESS:Mfg photolithography eq S&P EVALUATION AS OF: 11/14/97 S&P Stock Appreciation(STARS) Rank: S&P Earnings/Dividend Rank: NR ANALYST CONSENSUS AS OF: 11/16/97 Average Quality Consensus Opinion(AQO) Recommendation November 1997 1.20 Buy October 1997 1.20 Buy September 1997 1.37 Buy June 1997 1.25 Buy December 1996 1.33 Buy CONSENSUS BREAKDOWN By National Firms: Buy By Regional Firms: Buy By Non-brokers: NF No. of % of 1 Mth 3 Mth ---- By Source ---- Ratings Total Prior Prior Nat'l Reg'l Non-Brk Buy 2 40.0 2 2 1 1 0 Buy/Hold 1 20.0 1 1 0 1 0 Hold 2 40.0 2 0 1 1 0 Weak Hold 0 0.0 0 0 0 0 0 Sell 0 0.0 0 0 0 0 0 No Opinion 0 0.0 0 1 0 0 0 ======= ====== ===== ===== ===== ===== ====== TOTAL 4 100.0 5 4 2 3 0 CONSENSUS EARNINGS PER SHARE FORECAST AS OF: 11/15/97 Fiscal Year End (See footnote 1): December Next Earnings Report Expected Date: 02/02/98 AVERAGE PERIOD TO HIGH LOW NUM --NUM REVISED-- FISCAL EPS EST PERIOD %CHG EST EST ESTs UP DOWN 1997 0.82 182.8 0.85 0.76 4 0 0 Qtr 1 0 0 0 Qtr 2 0 0 0 Qtr 3 0 0 0 Qtr 4 0.24 100.0 0.24 0.23 3 0 0 1998 1.06 29.3 1.15 1.00 4 0 0 Qtr 1 0.24 0.24 0.23 3 0 0 Qtr 2 0.26 0.27 0.25 3 0 0 Qtr 3 0.30 0.30 0.29 3 0 0 Qtr 4 0.34 41.7 0.34 0.33 3 0 0 VALUATION COMPARISON AND RISK-REWARD ANALYSIS AVERAGE HIGH LOW GROWTH RATE COMPARISON Next 5 Yrs Projected Ann EPS Growth(%): 35.00 35.00 35.00 Past 5 Yrs EPS Annual Growth(%): NA P-E COMPARISON Implied 1997 PE(Current Price/1997 Est): 25.3 27.3 24.4 Implied 1998 PE(Current Price/1998 Est): 19.6 20.8 18.0 Past 5 Years Average PE Ranges: 49.8 83.2 16.4 Current PE(Past 12 Mth EPS): 27.3 Last Fiscal PE(1996 Close/1996 Act. EPS): 83.0 DOWNSIDE RISK ANALYSIS Highest Yield in Past 5 Yrs(%): Lowest Price Supported by Dividend($): Past 5 Yrs Average Low Price: 9.81 Recent Lowest Price: 4.75 Using Average Low PE & Lowest EPS Estimates Low Price Supported by 1997 EPS: 12.46 Low Price Supported by 1998 EPS: 16.40 PROJECTED PRICE RANGE Current Price(11/14/97): 20.75 Projected 1997 Price Range: 40.84 70.72 12.46 Projected 1998 Price Range: 52.79 95.68 16.40 PROJECTED RISK-REWARD FROM CURRENT PRICE % CHG IN ----MAXIMUM---- GAIN LOSS RELATIVE TO PROJ AVG % GAIN % LOSS RATIO PROJ PRICE RANGE Thru 1997: 96.8 240.8 40.0 6.0 Lower Range Thru 1998: 154.4 361.1 21.0 17.2 Lower Range EARNINGS PER SHARE ESTIMATES & TRENDS AS OF:11/15/97 AVERAGE NUM CHANGES % CHANGE FISCAL EST'D EPS DURING MTH IN AVG EST 1997 October 0.82 1 1 September 0.81 2 1 August 0.80 3 19 July 0.67 0 0 June 0.67 1 3 May 0.65 3 3 April 0.63 4 19 1998 October 1.06 1 2 September 1.04 3 -5 August 1.10 3 12 July 0.98 0 0 June 0.98 1 4 May 0.94 2 -2 *Additions or deletions to coverage may cause percent change in in average estimates without any analyst changes.

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