FSII - The Worst is Over? Message Board

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Technology Stocks : FSII - The Worst is Over?

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To: Kent Sarikaya who wrote (1608)	11/28/1997 9:31:00 PM
From: Donald Wennerstrom	Read Replies (4) of 2754

Kent, I picked up on your comments about the bull market in semi-equip stocks in 1995 and as a result, I compared for each stock it's high value in 1995 with the high value it achieved in 1997. The result was not exactly what I expected. The sorted table is shown below: 1995 1997 HIGHEST HIGHEST PERCENT SYMBOL COMPANY PRICE PRICE CHANGE ETEC Etec System 9.17 67.13 632 SFAM Speed Family 18.25 60.38 231 PRIA Pri Automation 22.38 58.50 161 VECO Veeco Instruments 29.13 72.50 149 AMAT Applied Materials 29.56 54.00 83 ASYT Asyst Technologies 26.50 47.25 78 MICN Micrion 16.00 27.50 72 BRKS Brooks Automation 24.00 39.69 65 KLAC KLA Instruments 46.91 75.63 61 COHU Cohu 35.75 56.00 57 PLAB Phototronics 40.47 62.75 55 NVLS Novellus Systems 43.19 64.69 50 TER Teradyne 42.00 58.75 40 NANO Nanometrics 10.13 13.63 35 CMOS Credence Systems 40.25 54.13 34 KLIC Kulicke & Soffa Industries 44.38 57.25 29 IMSC Integrated Measurement Systems 16.50 20.00 21 HELX Helix Technology 27.00 32.19 19 WFR MEMC Electronic Materials 38.25 38.75 1 LRCX Lam Research 71.75 66.31 -8 EGLS Electroglas 39.75 35.25 -11 ASEC Aseco 21.88 18.88 -14 GSNX Gasonics 26.83 23.06 -14 TGAL Tegal 13.88 11.25 -19 SVGI Silicon Valley Group 48.38 37.75 -22 SMTL Semitool 36.00 26.88 -25 UTEK Ultratech Stepper 46.75 34.38 -26 PHTN Photon Dynamics 12.00 8.38 -30 IPEC Integrated Process Equipment 54.50 37.19 -32 WJ Watkins Johnson 56.25 37.25 -34 FSII FSI International 37.75 23.19 -39 LTXX LTX 14.00 8.19 -42 MTSN Mattson Technology 31.13 16.00 -49 GGNS Genus 16.75 7.88 -53 SUBM Submicron Systems 14.00 4.44 -68 TOTALS 1101 1357 23 First of all, I didn't expect the large spread in performance from the top to the bottom of the table. I have not reached any conclusions about various groupings within the table and why those stocks would behave that way. There may be some reasons, but I have not been able to discern them. Joe, the earnings numbers you quoted from Dain Bosworth are in line with previous estimates. There hasn't been much movement in FSII's earnings estimates for some time. One of the things that concerns me is the relatively low earnings estimate of FSII for FY-99. For that long a time in the future, the number is very low. If that estimate does not improve, I don't think FSII is going to increase share price much in the forseeable future. Another thing, notice the sum of the stock prices show a 23 percent increase from 1995 to 1997 over the 2 year period. That's 11 to 12 percent a year. Not a "barn-burner" by any means. Don W.

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