I think Samsung now has been presented with a narrowed range of options... which will require them to engage in a negotiation or two which they'd probably not had any reason to consider engaging in, before...
However, it's not immediately obvious to me that AAPL is the clear winner from having created that new requirement and the potentially disruptive elements that might result from having it out there...
The one who has the power of decision in the result... is Samsung...
They WILL have to "talk" to MSFT... if for no other reason than to make it known they are... as that will be disruptive and problematic in itself for competitors... generating a negotiating advantage for them... at others expense... (and, especially, NOK's) They can gain "cross licencing" benefits by working with Redmond... so, they'll have to talk... and see what else might be put on the table that matters when they do.
They WILL have to "talk" to AAPL... for a variety of reasons, including in the need to modify AAPL's perspective of the utility of their "win"... and the "split the pot" conversation will have to occur... but, shouldn't in any context where there isn't a conversation with MSFT occurring in the background...
They'll have enough they need to discuss with Google, obviously...
Interesting that I'm not commenting on that aspect of the result... and neither are others, yet... ? Hmmm. Note it as an incomplete element in the picture that can't remain incomplete. It might actually prove to be the most interesting element of the competition... that no one is talking about ?
But, I have no way of knowing what they might end up choosing... between "splitting the pot" with AAPL, or disrupting the game by an effort in resuscitating MSFT's fading hopes with the W8 and NOK... even if that might only be something that works... temporarily ?
The most "out of the box" wild card I could come up with that would be good for NOK... (or, even involve them) would require Samsung and NOK to decide to talk about solving their mutual problems with issues in the dependence on any others OS... a possible result being either cooperation in the effort to revitalize something like that which NOK just threw away... or... ??? I'd go as far as saying I think the result might well lead to an larger Samsung interest in an acquisition of NOK... or, their IP... which, face it, NOK isn't getting much real use out of now, anyway... or, maybe a new focus on "cross licensing" of IP that results in a new sharing of IP between them... that will be useful in re-balancing the market... on terms other than OS... that alter the debate ?
I have to grasp at straws to be able to craft a situation that makes NOK relevant (even within the scenario in which NOK succeeds, or at least survives, in the current round)... and, still, that effort wouldn't contain any short term solutions... which both NOK and Samsung require... and by the point where the timing is ripe, the world might look a lot different than it does now anyway... so, a slightly larger potential exists there than before, but, still not a very large one. To leverage that potential... would require a truly creative and visionary management who were willing to take well calculated risks (again, assuming they knew how to calculate them)... so... never mind... Elopian dreams don't include that sort of color, it seems.
NOK's only advantage, for the moment, is that the timing works in their favor... IF they able to keep their heads out of their rear ends, AND above water, long enough to make something good happen... in the next product cycle...
We're going to see something shake out in the way of change over the next few months...
It seems everyone here agrees... that the current cycle, starting now, with NOK fully committed to W8, is a last gasp, make or break chance for success and survival for NOK...
Others have to choose, in talking to NOK... whether to use that risk in talking to them now... or if waiting to see how the next cycle shakes out is likely to generate a more dire situation, and more cooperation, from NOK... if they're forced into looking for a method to restore meat to the bones... before they're being picked over...
If there is "value added" at NOK by the current result in the legal games... it will likely be tied to the market issues in how the IP wars and IP management efforts evolve from this point...
I don't see that having a beneficial impact on NOK's ability to make better decisions...
My basic DD checklist, in step one, says:
1. Can you trust management ?
Without veering too far off topic or going squishy... the real answer to that question is ALWAYS yes... it's merely a matter of what about them you can trust, and what that means you can trust them IN... and whether that's good or not...
NOK's management is a known... (as is that of MSFT)...
They'll find a way to screw this up... minimize the opportunity... then fail to take advantage of its reduced form.
The addition of greater uncertainty... isn't an advantage to those overwhelmed by that they faced already.
Risk and opportunity as two sides of the same coin... Jobs understood well enough...
I think we may see a watershed occurring, here, that defines AAPL's future...
And that's about as far as I want to wander, for now... |
