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Gold/Mining/Energy : ATPG Shareholders

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From: thatsnotluck	8/26/2012 10:08:45 AM
	1 Recommendation Read Replies (1) of 3620

Why do revenues drop by half in 13 months??? The 8K projections show revenues peaking in a few months, and then they drop by half over the next 13 months. Why is this? I thought Telemark was going to flow enough cash to develop the rest of the stuff and get us on a self-sustaining path. According to the management projections the decline rates must be extremely severe unless i am totally missing something. And if decline rates are this high, then how can the PV10s be as high as they are? Something is not adding up for me. I clearly do not understand this stuff. I look at the PV10s and think this should be able to work out nicely, at least for the 2nd lien bonds, so long as oil prices stay more or less in line with the current prices. But then I look at management's cash flow statement and scratch my head wondering how 2nd lien is going to get anything. Then I look at the PV10 detail and think that with a possible (not certain by any means, but a possible) increase in oil prices of $25 or maybe $50 that even the preferred will be decently in the money. But then I look at the cash flow projections again and just scratch my head vigorously. Does anyone care to offer a theory as to the disconnect? What am I missing here? Thanks!

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