william e.,
Many bears,myself included, are operating under the premise that
we are in a mania which will end badly but realize that timing the
end is extremely difficult.
My concern is that the US market has lately had several perfectly
reasonable, rational opportunities to sell off to more reasonable
valuation levels without having to place blame directly on anyone at
the Fed, in Congress, the White House, Wall Street, or Main Street,
yet it didn't.
This means one (or more) of five possibilities:
1) The market really isn't overvalued.
2) Asia's problems are a non-event.
3) The market is run by fools.
4) The market was caught completely off-guard.
5) The market wants to fall on its own sword within its own time
frame and at much higher levels, causing the maximum damage
possible.
I believe it's difficult to refute #1 or #2. I don't think #3 is
true at all, though I do believe lots of turgid stock is currently
being distributed to anyone foolish enough to buy it. #4 is the most
likely, with the current rebound being engineered in order to achieve
distribution AS QUICKLY AS POSSIBLE. The pessimist in me says #5 is
also likely, which is another way of saying things will have to "end
badly" before its all over. Maybe things will turn out OK, anyway. |
