You were looking at housing starts = trees
I was joshing about housing resales = forest
Note that the C-S Index is a 3-month rolling average, so tomorrow's report replaces April with July.
April, May, June, gets replaced with May, June, July. Next month, May gets replaced with August.
The ratio of Resale transaction prices to rents was way out of line in 2005 because of speculators. Now I hear it is in line or at least OK, if not favorable. The ratio of income to transaction prices similarly was out of line and is now OK. MOL each of those is about affordability. And that's why deep pockets, including banks, are holding inventory off the market. No one wants to sell at 2009 prices. The shadow inventory you refer to has been marked to market, and will be positively marked when they are actually sold if prices stay where they are or improve.
If August over May surprises on the upside, which seems obvious, the positive trend continued. |
