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Gold/Mining/Energy : ATPG Shareholders

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To: kollmhn who wrote (97)

8/27/2012 7:15:47 PM

From: billgatesisevil

2 Recommendations Read Replies (1) of 3620

It will depend on the price of oil, very simple. The common has nothing to lose and everything to gain. The judge may well rule that with the price of oil potentially increasing the PV-10 of the company will result in enough assets so the common can get a recovery. MIR debt went down there too. Calpine traded down at 15 cents on the buck. Cramming 1.5 bn in second lien notes into the market on a thin thing like this will blow the price out on the bonds. Now all 1.5 bn may not have gone. I came up with the following based on the trades from Finra from last week:

Using the trade size as 1100 bonds for 1MM+, I get the following numbers for the trades this past week:

Dealers	108,114,000
Buyers	97,769,000
Sellers	70,513,000

Basically, only 70MM+ of the full 1500MM was sold, and ~98MM+ was bought. There are still a lot of bonds unaccounted for. They may have changed hands prior to the bk.

Dealers are dealer to dealer sales/buys and don't count.

My guess prior to the bk was that the bonds would trade down under 20 no matter what as the institutions had to dump. The ax is starting to be narrower and moving higher today.

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