Subject: Re: Now even Dr. Deeks admits his study was mis-leading or dishonest?
Date: Sat, Nov 29, 1997 01:07 EST
From: Biorich23
Message-id: <19971129060701.BAA11471@ladder01.news.aol.com>
When the study at ICAAC proclaimed the "real-world failure" rate was high for the "cocktail" I cried foul because I believed the study was at best mis-leading if not downright dishonest. Now even the Doctor that proclaimed this study admits it was misleading (11/28):
"Earlier this year, Dr. Steven Deeks of the University of California's AIDS program in San Francisco issued a sobering report that the AIDS cocktail had failed to significantly suppress the virus in more than half of all patients.
Deeks now says he believes that figure may have been misleading since some failures are the fault of doctors who prescribe the drugs improperly, or of patients who may not understand how serious it is to miss even a single pill.
But even among those who adhere religiously to the triple drug therapy, the failure rate is estimated to be as high as 20 percent. Especially difficult to treat are people who have had AIDS for many years and built up resistance to multiple drugs."
This study has been an ongoing onslaught of news coverage on the limitations of the ccocktail, that may deter patients from seeking treatment. This is very dangerous media hype that has real world consequences. Another onslaught is the publicity of the hundreds of AIDS drugs awaiting clinical trials, just out of coincidence these two revelations appear in the same story. Once again this is misleading since the the number of Protease Inhibitors could
be 5 instead of the currently available 3 overthe next 4 yrs. The only new PI we will see within the next 2 yrs is Vertex Pharmaceutical's PI VX-478, that recently published very discouraging results from their phase III trials with only a 70% "respond" rate, far less than Indinavir or Nelfinavir. Although these two thoughts are not really anything new, ther seems to be several stories a day over the last few weeks that focuses on these two ideas,
very damaging to a company's stock like Agouron.
It is clear that a vaccine is at least a decade away, promising additions to the current cocktail like integrase inhibitors will not be start trials for another 2 yrs (Agouron is planning to start their Integrase Inhibitor research program ). At most in this expanding mkt there couls only be at most 5-7 Protease Inhibitors on the market in the next 5 yrs.
The reality in the face of this media blitz on the cocktail and Asian currency debacle is that Agouron's fundamentals have actually improved as the stock has dropped around 33% from it's hight of 56 1/2 in early Oct, If you panicked and sold based on fundamental picture changing, it was because you did not do your own research. The analyst have maintained their ratings and earnings estimates with several raising their estimates amnd tgts after
Montgomery's analyst-David Crossen cut AGPH to a hold based on these two thoughts, Dr. Deek's study at UCSF and the huge competition that Agouron's PI will likely face over the next 5 years. Wether decididing to buy or sell at this new plateau, please do you own research and thought. I see a 2-3 billion dollar mkt with 5-7 protease inhibitors on the mkt over the next 10 yrs with dual protease inhibitor tratment as standard. Any new drugs will be
used in conjunction with the cocktail with protease inhibitors, IMHO integrase inhibitors will be the next drug in the cocktail hopefully in 3-5 yrs.
We have clearly seen the bottom, it is ridiculous the mileage that the bears/shorts have gotten out of Dr. Deek's "misleading" study by his own admission. A significant buying opportunity has developed, take advantage and buy AGOURON that will be the next Amgen from the Biotech companies. |
