Democracy Corps poll shows Romney up 15 among independents
Via Suitably Flip and RCP, the latest poll from James Carville’s Democracy Corps should have the sirens wailing over at Team Obama. The topline numbers show Barack Obama with a two-point lead over Mitt Romney, 49/47, down from a 4-point lead in July. The new sample is D+6 at 38/32/28, only a slight change from July’s D+5 at 38/33/25, a margin-of-error change from one poll to the next (which is true of the topline change, from 50/46, as well). However, there are a couple of big red flags in the data that hint at a much different race than what the toplines represent.
That’s a 15-point lead for Romney among independents, 53.4/38.0. Fifteen points. Just to remind everyone, in the D+7 turnout of 2008 in a Democratic wave election, Obama won independents by eight points, 52/44, on his way to a seven-point victory overall. That’s a 23-point shift in this key demographic, way outside the margin of error, and it’s hard to square that with a two-point Obama lead now.
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