<<If they can get production to aprox 39,000 BOEpd by the end of year (and I know it's a big if), wouldn't ATPG have sufficient cash flow (@90 - 100 oil) to service their debt, and fund enough capex to maintain production at 39K. >>
production at that level would be over a million bbl per month, call it $100 million gross revenues? if they can get there and maintain it, things look pretty rosy IMHO.
management cash flow projections suggest they neither make it to $100 million per month in gross revenues, nor maintain revenues at anything close to that level, if i am interpreting the numbers correctly. in following this company for several years, the future production always seems to be estimated as current plus flow rate of new projects, but that nasty decline rate has made it difficult for them to do much more than run in place. Clipper looks to flow large, but not flow long, if i compare the reserves to the postulated production rate. |
