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Gold/Mining/Energy : ATPG Shareholders

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To: billgatesisevil who wrote (231)	8/31/2012 12:38:57 PM
From: Area51	Read Replies (2) of 3620

The 18 month 8K cash flow of 12 million per month was very alarming to me. 144 million per year cash flow would only justify an EV that would cover the first lien at about 4 times cash flow. But on a forward basis, by that point the ORRI and NPI should be running down (right?) so maybe you can look at 28 million per month cash flow, which might support an EV of 1.4 billion (4 x annual cash flow). Which could allow 50% recovery on the non-senior bonds? And there are the asset value arguments as well of course (however if they can't generate cash flow that pays for the capital expense and the financing cost for the development of those wells the value of those assets is highly questionable). Even the common has some hope here (for at least warrants on the new common worth more than 0.20 per share). It should be an interesting (and hopefully profitable) story to watch develop over the next months. I guess management goes silent during these BK (and are mostly aligned to the first lien holders that are holding the purse strings)? Best Regards, A51

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