"Net oil imports into the US are the lowest in twenty years"
We have dropped demand by 2 M BPD since 2008, and vehicle miles keep dropping.
We are currently producing about what we produced in '04, but there is a big discrepancy between the EIA and the Texas RR Commission about production. EIA idata has become very suspect.
(Also, we're just starting to import more refined products, cuz of fires in Cal and Venezuela.)
Summary of Weekly Petroleum Data for the Week Ending August 24, 2012
U.S. crude oil refinery inputs averaged 15.4 million barrels per day during the week ending August 24, 58 thousand barrels per day below the previous week’s average. Refineries operated at 91.2 percent of their operable capacity last week. Gasoline production decreased last week, averaging 9.2 million barrels per day. Distillate fuel production decreased last week, averaging about 4.7 million barrels per day.
U.S. crude oil imports averaged 9.5 million barrels per day last week, up by 1.3 million barrels per day from the previous week. Over the last four weeks, crude oil imports have averaged nearly 8.8 million barrels per day, 438 thousand barrels per day below the same four-week period last year. Total motor gasoline imports (including both finished gasoline and gasoline blending components) last week averaged 690 thousand barrels per day. Distillate fuel imports averaged 134 thousand barrels per day last week.
U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) increased by 3.8 million barrels from the previous week. At 364.5 million barrels, U.S. crude oil inventories are above the upper limit of the average range for this time of year. Total motor gasoline inventories decreased by 1.5 million barrels last week and are in the lower half of the average range. Both finished gasoline inventories and blending components inventories decreased last week. Distillate fuel inventories increased by 0.9 million barrels last week and are below the lower limit of the average range for this time of year. Propane/propylene inventories increased by 0.7 million barrels last week and are above the upper limit of the average range. Total commercial petroleum inventories increased by 4.7 million barrels last week.
Total products supplied over the last four-week period have averaged 19.2 million barrels per day, down by 2.1 percent compared to the similar period last year. Over the last four weeks, motor gasoline product supplied has averaged about 9.1 million barrels per day, down by 1.0 percent from the same period last year. Distillate fuel product supplied has averaged 3.6 million barrels per day over the last four weeks, down by 6.2 percent from the same period last year. Jet fuel product supplied is 3.8 percent lower over the last four weeks compared to the same four-week period last year. Also, total world exports have fallen by about 2 M BPD...
Our database shows that GNE fell from about 46 mbpd (million barrels per day) in 2005 to about 44 mbpd in 2011. For every barrel of oil that the top 33 net oil exporters consumed in 2005, they produced 3.8 barrels of total petroleum liquids. For every barrel of oil that the top 33 net oil exporters consumed in 2011, they produced 3.2 barrels of total petroleum liquids. If this ratio were to fall to 1:1, GNE would be zero, but the trend line is toward a 1:1 ratio between top 33 total petroleum liquids production and domestic liquids consumption.
We define available net exports (or ANE) as GNE less China and India’s combined net oil imports. ANE fell from 40 mbpd in 2005 to 35 mbpd in 2011 as the developing countries, led by China and India, consumed an increasing share of a declining volume of GNE. For every barrel of oil that China and India net imported in 2002, there were about 11 barrels of global net exports. For every barrel of oil that China and India net imported in 2011, there were about 5.3 barrels of global net exports. If this ratio were to fall to 1:1, China and India would consume 100% of global net exports of oil, but the trend line is toward a 1:1 ratio between global net exports of oil and China and India’s combined net oil imports.
Canada has shown an increase in net exports, but the combined net oil exports from the seven major net oil exporters in North and South America, inclusive of Canada’s rising net exports, fell from 6.1 mbpd in 2004 to 5.0 mbpd in 2011.
http://www.energybulletin.net/stories/2012-06-25/commentary-america%E2%80%99s-new-energy-reality-bidding-war-declining-global-net-oil-expo
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But what about rising US oil and gas production?
It’s certainly true that US domestic production has increased, but we are seeing some troubling inconsistencies between EIA data and other data sources, such as the Texas Railroad Commission (RRC), which regulates and Texas oil and gas production and which has been keeping track of Texas production for decades. It’s important to note that the EIA uses a sampling approach to estimate US production, including Texas production, while the RRC sums the mandatory production reports from Texas producers.
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