I'm a new reader/poster to this forum as of today, and I bring a perpective that these posts don't have a ton of... I'm a hedge fund manager with a trading position in TPRO. My fund is a small one, relatively, in the hedge investing world, and we trade stocks around a core of positions on which we have longer-term views.
TPRO originally caught my eye through technical analysis, and I traded it from 6 1/2 to 7 1/2, luckily getting out near it's highs. Then, I bought back in from 6 1/2 all the way down to 5 1/4, selling out a lot at 6 23/32 in the last week or so. My 40,000 share position is now down to 11,400 shares and I'm thinking that the days of trading this stock are nearing an important point.
Here's why. In my business, our investors expect us to trounce the market's returns, and we're paid on an incentive basis. And, the only way I've ever been able to "juice" my returns was through a combo of active trading, using longer-term holdings as my core. I've had TPRO in the "trading" stable for a while, but the most important factor in deciding which stocks are safe to trade is that they have a nice "story" that can cause someone else to come along shortly and pay up for your shares. TPRO has a pretty intriguing story, and I'm sure most of you agree.
But, if the whole Y2k tree is going to bear fruit (measured for me by revenue) it needs to happen soon, or TPRO will undergo the same grind down that we've seen in other of these stocks. You might argue that their strong core business would prevent that, but I can only refer you to where the stock traded before they were recognized as a potential Y2k solution. It would surely dive if the Y2k fruit isn't borne.
So, TPRO is near that inflection point where one of 2 things happens. 1) business explodes, making this an attractive intermediate-term hold, or 2) the emperor has no, or not enough, clothes and the story and stock unravel, making this a dangerous stock for a trader to be caught playing. I'm now feeling uncomfortable with it as a trading stock, and will rely on your collective insight, as well as other external info, to decide if it should be accumulated as one of my core holdings.
You may be wondering why I typed this long, neither bullish or bearish post. It is because I wanted to introduce my thought process to you. I'm neither arrogant nor stubborn in my opinions. I let the market "tell" me what side of the fence to be on each day, and it has brought me financial comfort.
I'm looking forward to getting to know this board's posters and being interactive with each of you.
Joe Newell
I apologize to Joe, since he didn't realize I eavesdrop! CK HOUSTON
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AOL Motley Fool
Subject: New, but anxious to join the discussion
Date: Sat, Nov 29, 1997 13:11 EST
From: DOWZUP
Message-id: <19971129181100.NAA19516@ladder02.news.aol.com> |
