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Technology Stocks : The *NEW* Frank Coluccio Technology Forum
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To: Frank A. Coluccio who wrote (41449)9/6/2012 9:27:58 AM
From: aladin3 Recommendations  Read Replies (4) of 46821
 
Getting back to some basics on this thread: Moore's Law vs Shannon's Limit

Moore's Law: is the observation that over the history of computing hardware, the number of transistors on integrated circuits doubles approximately every two years.

Shannon's Limit: A statement defining the theoretical maximum rate at which error-free digits can be transmitted over a bandwidth-limited channel in the presence of noise, usually expressed in the form C = W log2(1 + S /N ), where C is the channel capacity in bits per second, W is the bandwidth in hertz, and S /N is the signal-to-noise ratio.

Background: It's been my observation in the computer industry that our thinking has been clouded by the ongoing success of of Moore's Law.

In communications the disconnect between these two principals was masked by two factors:
  1. Communications technologies were not yet approaching Shannon's Limit and the ramp up looked very similar to Moore's law
  2. The Telecom bubble of the late 90's and the huge capacity glut created from the remains

This glut is nearing an end, but there is little appetite for large scale capital intensive projects.

With Wireless - speeds have increased and continue to increase, but this has occurred primarily through smaller cell sizes.

Optical is becoming interesting because at 200G we will reach capacity on wavelengths on existing fiber without additional regeneration. In other words - you can plan on 400G or 1 Terabit per channel, but you can forget ILA's and will need active components - driving up cost. Submarine routes using existing fiber at these speeds will not be possible with any known technologies (putting them out at least 5 if not 10 years).

Thoughts?

John
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