Jim,
Hat's off to Arakis for going into a war zone, when Chevron relinquished the concession. The growing interest of the US in East Africa should bring a focus onto the Sudan and "shine a spotlight" on the Sudanese issue. That will definitely accelerate resolution of the whole political issue- similar to what happened in Bosnia.
As John Garang stated to Hosni Mubarak two days ago when he visited Cairo, the Sudan will stay united if the NIF recognizes the basic governing principles of a democratic and secular state which allows for ethnic diversity. However if the NIF continues to push Islamist policies, then Sudan will end up two states in a confederation.
So the peace talks last month definitely focused the issue and potential resolutions, and the US's visit to East Africa next week IMO will speed the end of the war- for the good of all in East Africa. Democratic principles have spread to almost all of the governments of East Africa right up almost the entire coast, and the local economies are accelerating because people are being freed to think and act upon ideas. Nothing like economic development to end local tensions too.
So my guess is that the US Secretary of State will "push" the whole issue toward resolution. Sudan needs to join in the economic benefits of the growing development in East Africa- and not be a closed society dominated by religious fanatics. (Most Islamic-dominated states are closed societies- and therein lies the tension between enjoying the benefits of worldwide economic integration and yet losing traditional "control" over your citizenry. Every Islamic country is currently grappling with this issue and how properly to strike a balance between the two items. Indeed I would argue that that is what drives the Islamic Fundamentalists actually- fear- fear of this massive "Third Wave" of economic development in World History literally blasting their world view into pieces. Malaysia and Indonesia, e.g., have chosen economic development as first priority- Iran and Afghanistan on the other hand have chosen to remain closed traditonal societies as first priority, each with the attendant ramifications).
Again as an Arakis Shareholder without sounding too banal, you probably do not care who wins the war. However if a free Sudan results from current war/diplomatic efforts, then that is even better, since that would open many markets to the Sudan in East Africa for its natural resources, including its oil.
So watch Secretary of State Madeleine Albright's trek very closely next week- 1998 may see the end of civil war in the Sudan....
Now I'll get off my soapbox- there are many similar issues in West Africa which will next come into the spotlight.....And again it's the British who left these "jumbled" political entities with strange tribal combinations within the same countries- never understood the British way of thinking I did....
Sincerely,
Doug F. |
