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iPhone 5 may be worth $3.2 billion to U.S. economy: economist
September 10, 2012, 2:52 PM
The iPhone 5 could inject $3.2 billion to the U.S. economy in the fourth quarter, an economist estimated Monday.
The iPhone math, courtesy of J.P. Morgan’s Michael Feroli, goes like this.
The bank’s equity analysts expect around 8 million iPhones will be sold in the fourth quarter in the U.S., even while sales of prior generation iPhones are maintained. Assuming a $600 price tag — remember, this is for the phone itself, not the retail price minus the subsidy provided by the wireless operator — and $200 worth of imported goods per phone, sales of the iPhone 5 could boost Q4 GDP by $3.2 billion, or $12.8 billion at an annual rate.
That also equates to roughly a 0.33-percentage-point boost to GDP — which is substantial, given that the bank forecasts a 2% growth rate for the entire U.S. economy.
Feroli acknowledges it’s a big estimate but explained why he expects such a boost.
“In October of last year, when the iPhone 4s first became widely available, overall retail sales that month significantly outperformed expectations. Essentially all iPhone sales occur either on-line or in retail stores. Over half of the 0.8% increase in core retail sales last October occurred in two categories: on-line sales and computer and software sales, which combined had their largest monthly increase on record. The incremental growth of Q4 sales at those stores over Q3, if due to the iPhone, would have added between 0.1% to 0.2%-point to Q4 growth, after subtracting the import drag. Given the iPhone 5 launch is expected to be much larger, we think the estimate mentioned in the first paragraph is reasonable,” he said.
– Steve Goldstein |
