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Technology Stocks : Cymer (CYMI)
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To: spiny norman who wrote (10737)11/30/1997 8:29:00 AM
From: Zeev Hed  Read Replies (1) of 25960
 
Spiny, thanks, that is getting close to 20% of shares outstanding, yet even if all of it was arbitrage, it would not account for 50% of the convertible debenture. Ithink that rallies to 25 could be met by additional shorting from that source for sometime, at least until it becomes clear that the upheaval in the rim has quited down.

One way to look at the potential pricing of CYMI is to try and estimate its sales once it is at full capacity, it has the capacity to produce about 1000 eximer lasers per year or roughly twice the current rate. I do not see much more than about 600 such systems being sold per year over the next 12 months, and if Samsung continues to have difficulties increasing their debt load (as well as Hyundai and others in Korea), Possibly a little less. It is quite possible that a slow down in the growth rate may justify an SPR of only 2, or about $13 to $15. These pseudo fundamental considerations are in line with the relatively poor technical performance of the stock.

Zeev
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