Ezra Klein, last night
KLEIN: Jared Bernstein, we`re going to have you stick around. We`re
going to be on a related topic coming up next. But even after that, could
the iPhone 5 be that extra push we need to rescue the economy? It`s
possible. I`m going to make the case. ((BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: It is the most beautiful product we have ever
made, bar none. And this is iPhone 5.
(APPLAUSE)
(END VIDEO CLIP)
KLEIN: you probably already know the details. Apple`s latest
smartphone, the iPhone 5, it`s faster, sleeker than its predecessors.
You`ll need a new connector, which is kind of a bummer and a scam from
Apple. But you`ll have a larger screen.
But did you know this? The iPhone 5 could be more than just another
upgrade. It could quite possibly make a big difference in the economy in
the next quarter.
Here`s the explanation. In a new analysis, JP Morgan`s chief U.S.
economist, Michael Feroli, calculates that sales of Apple`s latest product
could boost economic growth in the fourth quarter by up to 0.5 percentage
points, half of one percent.
What does that mean in English? Could be a difference between another
quarter of bad results and a quarter of a little bit better results.
Feroli`s math is simple. The iPhone will sell for about 600 dollars a
unit. Subtract about 200 dollars for imported parts. That leaves 400
dollars to be added to the GDP.
If Apple sells eight million iPhones, that`s a 3.2 billion dollar
boost to the economy in that quarter. That increases annual fourth quarter
growth by about 0.33 percentage points. Factor in the notion that these
iPhones are cool in improvement and then there will be a lot of accessories
sold. And the numbers get even better, more around a half percentage
paint.
Now Feroli himself warns to be skeptical of these figures, but he
points to sales of the iPhone 4S, the last iPhone, as proof that his
projection is a real possibility. That iPhone way outperformed
expectations. And there was a lot less buzz around that product and it
wasn`t even the 5.
So the iPhone 5 could give the economy a much needed shot in the arm.
So thank you, Apple.
today.msnbc.msn.com |
