"I maintain, in contrast, that it's neither a zero-sum game, nor a topic that can be discussed in isolation, and certainly not a question of either efficiency or going all-out renewable. At least not at this time."
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Just so. It was Mandelbrot who recognized that charted market behavior was fractal. He didn't extrapolate to the logical conclusion that if market behavior was an accurate gauge, human behavior would also be fractal.
Fractal, but state-dependent, like water. As ice, water behaves one way. As vapor, another. In phase change, still another.
So what happens with efficiency depends very much on the state in which it's exercised. At a certain level of sufficiency and comfort, energy efficiency goes to aspirational changes. As individuals or populations experience downturns, efficiencies promote survival strategies, the aggregate of which economists call "recession". Another iteration of behavior as old as mankind, as life itself. Plants do it, too.
The upswing that began with the Industrial Revolution is nearing its end. Over the next 90 years gains in energy efficiency will affect individuals and populations differently than in the abundant past. Simply put, in future energy efficiency won't win the game, but it'll keep you playing when others are sidelined.
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Years ago we discussed the point at which crude prices would tip the world into recession. Note the latest from Saudi Arabia.
Jim |
