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Bill, You give me too much credit on my put buys. As many Prodigy
subscribers know, I turned bearish on Micron and started buying puts
at 63, not the 80s. Fortunately, that was only a 1/3 position and I
continued to buy all the way up until every put became extremely
profitable. There is no way to judge how stupid bulls will get in a
mania.
It is certainly possible that I missed the bottom of the stock price.
As I've said many times, this is the end game and end games are harder
to play than manic highs. But as of yet, I have seen zero evidence that
business is getting better and much evidence that things are bad now
and getting worse. The key to Micron has nothing to do with anything
the Keystone Kops in Boise try to pull, but with the supply glut in
their main market. Can DRAM have a slight upturn in price? Sure, it
did so in April. Then everyone and his brother sold their inventory,
turned on idle lines and the price declined another 50 percent or
so. BTW, my remarks about MU mgt. are only defamatory if they aren't
true. I have seen scores of flim-flam tricks from this company, so
it is just my opinion based on their actions. For example, why was
the one-time gain in the last quarter hidden in SG&A while the one-time
charge in second quarter was
trumpeted in the eps headlines? Why haven't
they come clean on the dividend? Why haven't they discussed the
SRAM disaster? Why haven't they given any details on when Microstamp
will be an important product? Why didn't they even tell us why MUEI
stank the house out last quarter? Why haven't they talked about their
new financing? What about their sleight of hand statements on inventory?
These are all recent items. There are many more
incidents where this touty firm has tried to spin the suckers, er,
shareholders. In general, they have been very successful and still,
after destroying bulls, have a lot of starry-eyed supporters. MB |
