Looking at the flowsheet... another way to consider the nature of the impact obviously shown in the diagram...
If you mine this deposit for the value in the iron and can make a profit just selling iron... you get the side benefit of improving your REE grade to something over 9% in the "now fully paid for" concentrate created as a byproduct of mining and separating out the the iron ores... and, that's even before considering the secondary values in niobium, which you'll end up having to sort out, too...
So, I'll revise my prior numbers... with this now looking like a full 100% iron mine, even if a smaller and lower grade one, paired with full 1/2 of a niobium mine, leaving you with 100% of a REE mine that produces an ore grade in REE that is over 9%... and does that for free.
That balances out to being 2 1/2 mines for the price of one... which is something of a no brainer. That the large iron miners are reducing development expenditures now... doesn't hurt the argument in relation to the benefit of timing the development of a smaller iron producer... with a long term outlook in the market that's conducive to development of a multi-metallic deposit.
I don't see many other deposits out there that can mine for a profit... and deliver REE ores grading 9%... for free... as a byproduct.
The other issues in the market, right now, look like they're probably tied to the saber rattling going on between China and Japan, one of the components elements of which is China again threatening to cut off the REE supply to the Japanese...
That threat will lose its currency, over time, as alternatives are developed to undercut the artificially created Chinese monopoly... but, there will be much longer lasting market impacts from China having postured the threats... as the markets react, as they should, to the fact of the inability to trust your Chinese suppliers.
It's just basic common sense that customers do have choices... making it stupid to threaten your customers.
And, Montveil is still there.. the third largest REE deposit outside of China... only, now, it's showing secondary values that already more than fully justify its develolpment for things other than the REE ?
That's just crazy...
Clearly, either China or Japan are likely going to have to buy this...
China might have to... just to sit on it to try to extend their control over the REE market... although whoever buys it, the economics at Montviel appear advantageous enough to make it necessary to develop it anyway.
Japan probably will... in order to accelerate it to development and obviate the Chinese market advantages in the REE supply with a more direct linkage than exists in the current efforts of other wannabe REE producers...
Japan could buy this just to defang China... but, they'd also have the ability to buy it as a concentrate only producer... planning on doing the work refining the concentrates in Japan... and still make it a profitable deal of it for everyone... given how wildly undervalued it is now...
Japan already has the expertise required to manage the REEs... which is a thing a lot of folks in the market are overlooking in thinking the REE story is all and only about China, or Molycorp...
I have no idea what others are thinkinig about Montviel... but, I'm looking at the numbers and seeing that is makes no sense at all to NOT move this thing along smartly into development... well ahead of many others out there that are making a lot more noise in the market. |
