Welcome to the thread VBH. After all the analysis and calls and posts back and forth, it all boils down to one key FUTURE event, the decision on whether or not EnviroTec will process Class V waste. This in no way diminishes the excellent growth in AdHatters, the promising programs of LPS, the Pickens lead in identifying new oil/gas finds, and the future acquisitions that are ahead. This in no way diminishes the actual numbers for the prior FY and most recent four months. They are all worthy components of what is and will be Coconino. But, when the dust and chicken fat finally settle, it will be the go (hopefully) or no go on EnviroTec that will propel or stunt this Company. For the newbies on the thread, let me recap those numbers on EnviroTec.
50,000 Barrels of Class V waste currently dumped improperly/illegally each and every day in the geographic environs surrounding the EnviroTec well.
An operational, profitable Class II well (that's only getting $.70 per barrel for Class II) awaiting Class V approval with the ability to process the waste and be remunerated as follows:
7500 barrels per day x 250 day per year x $16 to $29 per barrel equates to $30,000,000 to $54,375,000 revenue per year.
The operating costs of this facility processing Class II are only $120,000 per year and would probably have to increase (if for no other reason but to increase the size of the accounting dept) but should still be well under $1,000,000 per year-tops.
With modest modifications, the current EnviroTec well could be upgraded to handle 15,000 barrels per day; thereby, doubling the above revenues for that single facility.
While new regulations are often met with resistance and compliance is often slow to take hold, the current facility will be at maximum utilization if only 1 in 6.7 users comply with the law. In light of the fact that state and local governments will be users, this level of acceptance is not overoptimistic.
Even at the current level of 22.9 Million shares, EnviroTec can contribute anywhere from $1.26 to $2.37 earnings per share. If we use a P/E range of only 5 to 15 on these ranges for the current facility without expansion, then
EnviroTec ALONE can ADD to the Price per share FORWARD looking an amount that ranges from $6.30 to $35.55
This is on top of the intrinsic value of the stock and the worthy contributions from AdHatters, LPS, COG, and any accretive earnings from the sale of Uinta.
Y'all pick your own P/E, daily throughput and the like; it doesn't matter. You can see that this facility is paramount to the future of Coconino.
Let's keep the above in mind as we await tomorrow's news.
TraderGreg
BTW, VBH, the Wolverines just may have something to say about that National Title. |
