Loren -
Thank you very much for you effort. I do
appreciate it.
To get you up to speed quickly (the fundamentals vs technicals).
(1) BIOX got FDA OK for major Osteoarthritis drug in Aug.
(Has been in Canada and Sweden since 95)
Think of this drug - called SYNVISC - as a kind of
Silly Putty that a doctor injects into your knee.
(2) Their fundamentals are strong this year because they
signed major license deals with
AHP ($23.0 mil.) , '97
Bayer ( $5.0 mil.) , '97
Ingel Boe ( $8.0 mil.) , '97
Roche ( $5.0 mil.) , '95
RPR ( $5.5 mil.) , '95
and CGEN ($5.0 MIL). '96
Thus far in 97 they have been paid a bundle in fees.
So Revenues related to fees and CASH in the Bank are
in great shape.
(3) The stock went ballastic from Aug. 13 when FDA said ok
and went as high as $41.0 and some change.
(4) AHP started shipping SYNVISC this 4th qtr.
(5) A new player ANIK/BMY has entered the arena and are -
at best - 6 months behind the BIOX/AHP collaboration.
(6) You know OXSODROL - right. That's about a 1/2 billion
market that BTGC would like to enter.
The O/A market that BIOX is tapping into - I think - is
higher than 1 billion.
So it is a piece of change - to put it mildly.
And - they have an excellent product and science backing
it up.
(7) I expected BIOX to drop in price simply on "THE NO NEWS
SYNDROME" .
Don't know but I think I know that the really lowest it
could go is 29.50.
(8) This price decline is - I think - on extremely low volume.
Esp. the last 6 weeks or so.
(9) Short interest has risen from about 130,000 to 265,000 shares
for Sept/Oct.
(10) I expect a second product called HYLAFORM to be FDA okayed
this month. Collegen currently sells it in the rest of
the world for BIOX, and they would do another license
deal to get USA business.
(11) BIOX has already obtained distribution rights in CHINA.
The significance of this is that BAYER signed on for
about 6-8 asian countries. At some point, they may
go with BIOX for China.
If they did I'm speculating the fee would be $30.0 mil.
Alternatively, they could choose to go with the ANIK/BMY
team if they decided to wait.
Sorry to be so lengthly, but I hope this fills in some gaps.
Note, if you check out post #175 it is a detailed P&L that
speculates what 1998 might be like.
The ONLY number I am really uncertain of in this P&L is the
AHP - USA sales for 1998. That's a hard call.
Regards and thanks again,
John
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