To All: It should be a very interesting day tomorrow. We should get a clear indication of the seriousness with which the market approaches the problem of semiconductor exposure in Asia. That is, Hong Kong and Japan are both up a bit (good to see the Nikkei around 17,000) but Taiwan and S. Korea, where the biggest semiconductor mfgs. are, are both getting pasted. We'll see how it affects Cymer, but my bet is that all semi equipment manufacturers will take some kind of hit tomorrow. I think this may be a watershed. (I know Zeev thinks it will be later in the Spring.) I believe the following:
(1) If the semi equipment sector pulls ahead tomorrow, the worst is over and the sector will trend upward from here.
(2) If the sector is flat to moderately downward, the market will wait until after the New Year to start viewing business prospects in semi expansion favorably.
(3) If the sector gets pasted, semi-equipment stocks will not get the valuations they deserve until after the crisis in Taiwan-Korea is completely bottomed out and perhaps started to improve, which may not be until late Spring or later (IE, Zeev is right.)
just some thoughts......
jess |
