Carl:
Very nice analysis. I couldn't agree more. Problem is the markets are not responding to rationality. Is it manipulation by politicians anxious to keep their cushy jobs? Or is it more of the mania we have been experiencing? Joe sixpack and the average professional man or woman I talk to are not worried and not even cognizant of the events in the world, much less their basic implications for monetary and economic policies. They are "in it for the long haul". Yeah, until their portfolio drops 30 or 40%.
So now we have Japan, HK, and Singapore up 2% or so overnight (? manipulation), but South Korea down another 3.6% (below 400), Taiwan down 5%, Thailand down 2%. A mixed Asian bag, to be sure, and what does it mean? Our Globex spoos are up 7.7 points as of this writing (0555 EST), and the ever ebullient European markets are up too.
I feel like a sane man in a lunatic asylum. Or maybe I am the crazy one. Does 2 + 2 really = 5? Tired of standing in front of the proverbial oncoming train. Maybe I should sell my long puts, cover the short stocks and start buying some of those techs! The higher the P/E the better! In George Orwell's "1984", Winston Smith, after torture, finally realizes that he was "wrong" and learns to love Big Brother. I'm almost there. Anybody else turning bullish? <g>.
Good post Carl.
Jack |
