Ligand (LGND) Breakout! Message Board

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Biotech / Medical : Ligand (LGND) Breakout!

LGND 190.43

-0.7%

Feb 6 9:30 AM EST

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To: CYBERKEN who wrote (11915)	12/1/1997 7:52:00 AM
From: Henry Niman	Read Replies (2) of 32384

CYBERKEN, I agree that the heavy volume is not a bearish signal. For the past two years, LGND's volume has increased dramatically in late Nov and early Dec before the price rose dramatically (last year it was from 11 1/4 to 17). The heavy volume did not move the price because there was swapping by the big boys (large block sells offset by large block buys). The recent downtrend has been characterized by light volume and retail selling. Recently there have been swaps (similar size large blocks trading within a minute of each other seperated by a small spread). These swaps clear out overhangs which pave the way for a move up. Two years ago it was VCs distributing. Last year it was new stock from the secondary. This year there will be some from the ALRI call. When the weak hands have been removed, the stock can move up sharply on relatively light volume. Fundamentally, LGND is in its best shape ever. Its lead products (Targretin and Panretin) have generated stellar clinicals and LGND has just signed their biggest deal ever. They are on track towards 1999 profitability (a year ahead of schedule) and the product development timetable is dovetailing nicely with FDA reform on fast track review and off label promotion. LGND is well positioned on the scientific front. Their IR and STAT technologies are at the heart of pharma (non-polypeptide hormone) and Biotech (polypeptide hormone) drug development and long term invetsors will be all smiles. LGND's current price is an extremely attractive "buying opportunity" which could be a last chance, as LGND prepares for release of Phase III topical Panretin data and NDA filing. Tomorrow, LGND presents at Robertson Stephens, who have projected an EPS of $14.55 in 2006.

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