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Politics : Idea Of The Day
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To: IQBAL LATIF who wrote (15132)12/1/1997 8:06:00 AM
From: Logain Ablar  Read Replies (1) of 50167
 
Ike:

Good morning from the east coast. Hope all is well in Pakistan and I'm glad to see no posts over the 4 day weekend. Opportune time to break away from the thread with the conflicting emotions. Much better to spend time with family and friends and I'm glad to see you doing it.

Back to the markets. Hopefully we'll see a Holiday season rally run into year end. I say hopefully but I don't have a good read on this. I / we were premature on 3rd qtr earnings rallying the market but 4th quarter and 1998 may start to kick in over the short term.

I say short term because we'll have wage and inflation pressures kicking in next year, but its still too early to see if the FED will raise rates in 1st qtr of 98. Fed will have to balance a strong $$ which will not be good for the economy against an over heatining ecomomy.
We are starting to see higher wages in skilled areas but less skilled positions are also in demand. Equates to poorer products and services at higher prices. While FED may not raise rates there will be the worry that they will.

In 1998 we'll have lower import prices (F/X and oil) with drop in exports with hit to manufacturing sectors (CAT, Deere, etc.) as their products become too expensive for foreigners to acquire. How much of a decrease in construction projects is anybodys guess but we'll see a manufacturing slowdown from decreased exports no later than 2nd quarter of 98.

US manufacturing is strong right now while retail is weak (although N. Conway New Hampshire retail shops were booming this weekend).

Gold will continue to drop as countries sell supply onto open market.

Best regards and e mail me your Pakistan address (I'll still be out most of this week).

Thanks.

Tim
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