bruwin,
On the spreadsheets you show the dividend info. I think it would be interesting to show the accumulated cash available (in the total line at the bottom) and add it to the total return (if that's not being down already).
We could also decide to put that cash to work, to purchase more of a stock that's fallen...at any point in time in the future. By looking at the total cash, we could decide whether or not we wanted to "bump up" our purchase of one of our holdings, especially if its trading at a discount. We could decide to buy equal amounts (based on the cash available) of the "2 stocks off the largest % or up the smallest %". Just thinking out loud with this and I was wondering what the rest of you think about this type of approach. Once or twice a year, at the most would by my thought, with the possible exception of a downside trigger of 20% or 30%. If a stock hit that level, it would automatically trigger a buy with 50% of whatever cash was on hand at that time. If we decided to do this, it could easily be added to the spreadsheet as a new column "buy trigger price".....
As to CMI's weakness, I think it's more based on the view that the global economy isn't showing the traction that many would have liked to have seen by now. Especially with regards to China's slowing. I am one of the few who believe that the slowing in China, ultimately, is a very good thing. The key for them is to not let it slow too hard, too fast. That is a very difficult thing to do. They will overshoot their marks in both directions, IMO. This will temporarily cause the markets to "gyrate" in the short term. I think of the analogy of turning and stopping an aircraft carrier. You don't turn it on a dime, it takes many miles to maneuver when it's up to speed!
Similarly, open ended QE3 can be turned off at any time or adjusted to account for economic strength or weakness. I believe their goal was psychological: "we stand vigilant". |
