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Technology Stocks : Windows Phone

MSFT 496.92

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Nov 7 9:30 AM EST

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To: pyslent who wrote (655)	10/1/2012 5:58:37 PM
From: Eric L	1 Recommendation of 1099

Kantar Totals ... Yo psylent, << I have never had an understanding of how Kantar gets their data, but for what it's worth, Kantar labels that chart as "OS (Operating System) share - Smartphone Sales." I would assume they are reporting % of sales, not installed base. And probably sell-out, rather than sell-in, since a country-to-country breakdown of sell-in would be difficult, if not impossible, to come by. >> Hmm ... they do indeed now label the tables 'Sales.' They did last month as well. Here's a link to their July 10 2012 PR PDF where they did not label it as 'Sales.' I honestly can't remember where I came up with the header "Kanter Worldpanel ComTech Smartphone Installed Base and Share by OS & Country" but I don't think I invented it or imagined it ... but that of course might be a possibility. <ggg> tinyurl.com That report defines vaguely their 'huge panel' source methodoly but it is as clear as mud. Add the totals by country in the tables for a single OS. After adding them myself back in mid-July I posted ... In the 7 major markets Kantar tracks they see the Windows Phone installed base has increased from 15.2 million units in June 2011 to 24.7 million units in June 2012 (+63% YoY). The base is small but the growth is still reasonably significant. Most certainly 24.7 million WinPhone units were not 'sold' in 12 weeks ending June 12 2012 in 7 countries and 15.2 million WinPhone units were not 'sold' in 12 weeks ending June 12 2011. Android enabled smartphone 'sales' definitely did not total the Kantar reported 288 million units in only 7 countries (even though they were large markets) in the 12 weeks ending June 12 2011 nor did they total 425 million units in the 12 weeks ending June 12 2011 in those 7 countries. IDC (e.g.) estimated 104.8 million Android units sell-in in Q2 2012 v. 50.8m in Q2 2011. They estimated Windows Phone 7 / Windows Mobile sell-in for Q2 2012 at 5.4m (including about .3m WinMob units) v. Windows Phone 7 / Windows Mobile sell-in for Q2 2011 at 2.5m. Ain't no way 45 million smartphones were sold (in or out) in the 12 weeks ending September 2nd. I haven't double checked my addition yet but it seems that if installed base is correct an increase of ~15 million (~30 million -->45 million ) Windows based smartphones in now ten markets through 9/2 rather than 7 since July 12, seems high. Etc. Best, - Eric -

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