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Strategies & Market Trends : Shorting stocks: Broken stocks - Analysis

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To: Dale Baker who wrote (750)12/1/1997 10:22:00 AM
From: Q.  Read Replies (1) of 2506
 
Dale, re. SHEL, interesting find.

It appears to me that their sales
started to decline in the summer of 1996, leading to a lot of losses
at a time that automotive suppliers should have been doing really
well. I wonder if the market failed to build this into the stock price
until just now.

Analysts don't seem to think a whole lot of the co.:


Current Ratings:
Strong Buy (1) 1
Moderate Buy (2) 1
Hold (3) 2
Moderate Sell (4) 0
Strong Sell (5) 0
Mean Rating (1 to 5 scale) = 2.3

I compared the co. to two similarly sized competitors, PRLX and AFLX.

PSR growth p/e
PRLX 1.2 yes 31
AFLX 0.8 yes 29.5
SHEL 1.4 no NMF

So it would seem to me that
unprofitable SHEL is probably still comparatively overpriced. One
difference is that SHEL and AFLX have significant institutional
ownership, while PRLX does not.

I would suspect that tax-loss selling won't be a drastic factor with
SHEL, due to the apparent low individual ownership, but I could
always be wrong.

Here's a market guide report:

PRICING DATA (AS OF) 11/21/97 RATIOS & STATISTICS
Price 16.75 Price/Revenue (TTM) 1.43*
52 Week High 26.75 P/E (TTM) NM*
52 Week Low 16.75 Price/Book (MRQ) 2.12
Beta 1.02 Price/Cash Flow (TTM) 29.18
Avg Daily Vol (10 Day) 0.03 Mil ROA (TTM) -6.37%*
Avg Daily Vol (3 Month) 0.04 Mil ROE (TTM) -10.88%*
Current Ratio (MRQ) 2.04
DIVIDEND INFORMATION Total Debt/Equity (MRQ) 0.64
Indicated Annual ($) 0.00
Yield 0.00% NOTE: TTM = trailing twelve months
MRQ = most recent quarter

SHARE RELATED INFORMATION SHORT INTEREST INFORMATION
Market Cap. ($) 150.616 Mil Current Month 0.476 Mil
Shares Out. 8.992 Mil Previous Month 0.420 Mil
Float 6.000 Mil Short Interest Ratio 14.4 Day

INSTITUTIONAL & INSIDER OWNERSHIP
PURCHASES SALES NET PURCH %OWNED
Institutions (3 Months) 1.100 Mil 1.834 Mil -0.734 Mil 45.7%
Insiders (6 Months) 0.000 Mil 0.008 Mil -0.008 Mil 33.3%

BUSINESS SUMMARY
SHEL is a producer of high quality flexible printed
circuitry and flexible laminates principally for sale to the
automotive electronics & datacommunication markets. For the
39 weeks ended 5/97, revenues fell 8% to $78.3M. Net loss
totalled $5M vs. income of $4M. Revenues fell due to inven-
tory adjustments related to the collective bargaining nego-
tiations. Loss suffered from lower gross margins due to
lower sales, changes in product mix, & higher depreciation.

*PRELIMINARY: For the quarter ended AUG 1997, revenues were
26,993; after tax earnings were -2,999. (expressed in Thousands)


REVENUES (Thousands of U.S. Dollars)

QUARTERS 1994 1995 1996 1997

NOV 20,169 21,088 26,097 24,301
FEB 21,739 21,960 28,954 26,379
MAY 23,902 25,203 29,690 27,593
AUG 22,536 26,965 29,379 26,993*

TOTAL 88,346 95,216 114,120 105,266*

EARNINGS PER SHARE

NOV 0.030 0.080 0.120 -0.190
FEB 0.130 0.020 0.180 -0.170
MAY 0.180 0.110 0.160 -0.190
AUG 0.160 0.240 0.090 -0.330*

TOTAL 0.500 0.450 0.550 -0.880*
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