President Barack Obama Message Board

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Politics : President Barack Obama

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To: Road Walker who wrote (122705)	10/5/2012 9:52:07 AM
From: RetiredNow	Read Replies (1) of 149317

See my response to Sr. K... --------------- That's a nice number and it hasn't been that low since Jan'09. What's underlying those numbers? My dad used to say if something looks too good to be true, then it's probably not. Something stinks here. We're seeing some spikes in numbers in this report that are 3-sigma above the mean. From a statistician's point of view, that's highly unlikely (less than 0.1% probability). So what could have caused that spike? Not a new trend. Probably, it is an aberration. So I did some quick analysis: From the BLS.gov site: data.bls.gov Civilian Labor Force (thousands): * Jan'09 = 154236 * Sept'12 = 155063 * Increase = 827 Total Non-Farm Payroll: * Jan'09 = 133561 * Sept'12 = 133500 * Increase = -61 Wow! Employment actually DECREASED 61K from Jan'09 to Sept'12! So what's the real rates? Calculated True Employment / Unemployment Rates: * Jan'09 = 86.6% Employed / 13.4% Unemployed * Sept'12 = 86.1% Employed / 13.9% Unemployed So there you have it. Using the BLS' own numbers, Unemployment is WORSE than during the thick of Great Recession! But the sheep must be herded into a re-election of Obama, because we must continue these failed policies. So the great pre-election massage of the data continues. And it's all very easy to do, Sr K. They make seasonal adjustments, smoothing adjustments, and every other trick in the book to print the number they want. But the raw data and the trends from the raw data are simply alarming.

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