I THINK I figured out what's going on. Seriously. You've got 3 data points:
1. 140k jobs created
2. 800k+ more people employed
3. Unemployment rate way down
I'm a front end baby boomer, and I just announced my retirement this week (effective early next year). Over the years, as a front end baby boomer, I've found that what I think and do usually becomes a trend.
So what I think is happening is that the boomers are just starting to leave the workforce. That drives down the unemployment rate. At the same time, they have to be replaced, thus 800k more people working. But they're mostly existing jobs, thus only 140k new jobs created.
Implications?
1. The unemployment rate should accelerate down, big time over the next 10+ years.
2. Demand for workers, and wage inflation should kick in big time in the next couple of years.
3. The stress on SS and Medicare will increase dramatically, but wage inflation should buffer the problem.
4. Corporate profits should decrease as they have to pay higher wages. And they will lobby big time for increased immigration.
Wish I could recommend my own post, because I think this is spot on <g>. If so, the US working middle class is about to get much more prosperous as the pendulum swings the other way.
All demographics, not politics. |
