I think you're right! As the fat bulge of baby boomers retires, hiring should accelerate.
economix.blogs.nytimes.com
"To be sure, many of the those in the baby-boom generation have had to delay retirement, since the nest eggs they call “houses” have turned out to be worth much less than believed a few years ago. But even so, many workers are retiring, offsetting the number of young workers newly entering the labor force.
That means on net that the labor force probably will not grow as quickly as it did in years past, and so fewer payroll jobs are needed to absorb new entrants to the labor force each month. Typically the figure economists cite as the minimum number of additional jobs needed to keep the unemployment rate flat is about 150,000 to 200,000.
But economists at Barclays Capital, who have been analyzing how the graying of America may affect employment trends, estimate that going forward 75,000 to 100,000 jobs added per month may be sufficient.
The bottom line is that the path back to full employment is going to be long and scary no matter what. But if you think Boomers are leaving the job market relatively quickly, that slog starts to look a little less painful." |
