Hi Dwight,
I couldn't get the link I posted to go to the article. This is the article:
Wall Street Awaits Economic Data, Eyes Asia
By Mary Kelleher
NEW YORK (Reuters) - Stocks have historically performed well in December, but Wall
Street will start December already worried about financial stability in Asia and the region's
impact on global economic growth.
Turbulent overseas markets have upset U.S. stocks and Wall Street will be alert to more
unpleasant surprises after signs of fiscal trouble in Japan and an International Monetary Fund
(IMF) bailout in South Korea.
''These days, it's very tough to forecast what stocks are going to do,'' said Hugh Johnson,
chief investment officer at First Albany. ''It is very hard to predict events coming out of the
Pacific Rim.''
Tensions between Iraq and the United States over United Nations inspection plans to rid Iraq
of weapons of mass destruction could also cast a shadow over markets.
In addition, several key pieces of economic data due the week of Dec. 1 -- the employment
report and a manufacturing index -- could sway stocks, analysts said. On Tuesday, Federal
Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan will speak at a dinner in New York.
''Volatility is here to stay,'' said Peter Cardillo, director of research at Westfalia Investments.
''It is not going to disappear any time soon. Can we see the market go up or down 100
points in a day this month? Absolutely.''
The Dow Jones industrial average moved higher Friday, gaining 28.35 points to close at
7,823.13. It dropped 57.94 points for the week.
The Standard & Poor's 500 Index closed Friday up 3.76 points at 955.40, losing 7.69
points.
Despite the rise, analysts said the market was keeping a wary eye on Asia while monitoring
U.S. data and corporate earnings forecasts.
South Korea is the latest Asian country to draw Wall Street's scrutiny after reports the
country would need at least $60 billion in aid from the IMF and elsewhere to boost market
confidence.
The U.S. stock market is also nervous about Japan's financial system, which last week had its
biggest corporate failure with the bankruptcy of brokerage Yamaichi Securities Co. Ltd.
Analysts fear more Japanese banks and brokers will fold and leave burdensome debt.
''There is a good chance of further shocks to the financial system, probably from Japanese
banks,'' Johnson said. ''Also watch for an announcement by Japanese policy-makers of a
rescue package for their economy. ... These are two surprises which could overwhelm all the
(U.S.) numbers being released.''
Japanese Finance Minister Hiroshi Mitsuzuka said Friday ample liquidity would be provided
to Japan's financial institutions.
But troubles abroad might also be a mild boon to stocks at home if European and Asian
investors buy U.S. investments in search of a safe haven, analysts said.
''People are more focused on Asia,'' said Tom Galvin, chief stock strategist at Deutsche
Morgan Grenfell. ''But this should result in a flight to quality to U.S. markets.''
And if this week's economic data shows slow growth in the manufacturing sector and only a
small rise in average wages, stocks might push higher throughout December and finish 1997
near the year's highs, Cardillo said.
''December should be a good month,'' he said. ''We have low inflation and the economy is
slowing without Asia. There is no worry about the Fed raising rates ... and we should see
long-term rates dip below 6 percent, fueling stocks.''
But first, stocks must dodge the November National Association of Purchasing Management
(NAPM) index for November, due Monday, and the employment report, which comes out
next Friday, analysts said.
''Even if we assume we have a more rational week this (coming) week, which is very
doubtful, there are still a lot of numbers coming out,'' First Albany's Johnson said.
The NAPM, a measure of the U.S. manufacturing sector's strength, is expected to decline to
a 55.3 reading in November from 56.0 in October.
The market-moving employment report is expected to show that 201,000 new jobs were
created in Novmeber, down from 284,000 new jobs in October.
The unemployment rate was seen at 4.8 percent, up 0.1 percent from the previous month,
and average hourly earnings were forecast to rise 0.3 percent after a 0.5 percent rise.
The NYSE Composite index rose 1.79 to 499.10, losing 3.75 points.
The Nasdaq index gained 6.05 points to 1,600.55, losing 20.20 for the week.
The American Stock Exchange index fell 0.38 points to 662.11, declining 11.03 points for the
week. ^REUTERS@
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