TPM Editor’s Blog
Same Story
Josh Marshall
October 9, 2012, 8:31 AM
I mentioned last night that contrary to the topline in the Pew poll, most data we have (actually including Pew) show Mitt Romney getting a sharp spike on Thursday and Friday which then tapered off or reversed over the weekend. ABC is out this morning with a favorability poll (no horse race number) which sees the same pattern.
Romney’s favorability went up. But so did Obama’s. (Not surprising on either count since partisans on both sides are getting pumped up for the final month.) Romney favorables, however, remained in net negative territory.
The key point, for the bed-wetting set, is this …
Night-to-night data indicate a sizable boost for Romney, and drop for Obama, on Thursday night, a day after their first debate, which Romney widely is seen as having won. But both of those trends subsequently subsided in this poll, conducted Thursday through Sunday. The net effect is slight at best. Romney is now seen favorably by 47 percent of registered voters overall, unfavorably by 51 percent; Obama’s rating is better, 55-44 percent. Changes for both candidates from their pre-debate levels (Romney 44-49 percent, Obama 52-45 percent) are not statistically significant, given the surveys’ margin of sampling error.
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