Cummins is sensitive to economic swings. In 2009, amid a global financial crisis, revenue plunged to $10.8 billion from $14.4 billion and earnings collapsed to $2.49 a share from $4.08. They've recovered, and then some. Last year, revenue topped $18 billion and earnings per share totaled $9.07. Another slowdown is afoot, however. Cummins says it expects revenue of $17 billion this year and earnings before interest and taxes, or Ebit, to come in at 13.5% of revenue. Previous guidance called for revenue of $18 billion and an Ebit margin of 14.25% to 14.75%. (Cummins doesn't issue earnings guidance.) Those numbers imply that revenue for the second half of this year will fall about 15% from the same period last year. Shares nonetheless seem a good deal. Based on the lowest earnings estimate among more than 20 analysts who cover the stock, shares trade at nine times 2012 earnings and 10 times 2013 earnings. That's a discount to the broad U.S. stock market of about 40%. Based on more optimistic forecasts, of course, the discount is larger. The current slowdown is unlikely to resemble the 2009 one. should benefit from rising spending on high-efficiency engines and components as the recent tightening of emissions and fuel-economy standards in developed countries spreads around the world, according to Morningstar analyst Basili Alukos. He notes that the stock has historically traded at an average of 14 times earnings and calls it an "interesting value proposition" at today's price. Cummins will present third-quarter financial results on Oct. 30 and says it plans to cut 1,000 to 1,500 jobs by year's end. "The good news is that the negative earnings revision is out of the way and [Cummins] tends to be proactive in regard to reducing costs to meet weaker demand," wrote Credit Suisse analyst Jamie Cook in a Wednesday client note. Investors who buy Cummins shares get a dividend yield of 2.3%, and payments seem safe, making up less than one-quarter of earnings. The knock on industrial stocks is that their earnings could slip if the global economy worsens. Tuesday's warning from Cummins suggests that risk is real but manageable. Investors, meanwhile, are paying sky-high prices for dependable earnings; the consumer staples sector in the Standard & Poor's 500-stock index trades at 17 times projected 2012 earnings, versus 14.4 times for the broader index. If part of defensive investing is paying a low price, Cummins looks safe enough.