study of bubbles past, that after gentle incline comes parabola, followed by hyperbola, tagged by exponential, and finally, asymptote to infinity, right before the ... end-game and inevitable cliff when gold does triple waterfall universal step function fall, to usd 12,000 per oz
just cleared from tray
From: J
Sent: Sunday, October 21, 2012 7:28 AM
Subject: Re: Comments - Week of October 15 - fear bubbles trump greed bubbles
grant and all, a clip and paste reminder of my study of bubbles to discern possibilities
synopsis of bulls (bre-x, vestas wind, toll brothers, and yahoo)
given the phases and my rule of thumb that 80% of the needling ramp comes w/i the last 20% of the bull ramping time, am surmising that
(i) greater the global participation, higher the end-stage gains by proportion
(ii) shorter the total elapsed bull run time would tend to more evenly allocate the bull gain between the first 80% of bull run time and the 20% end-stage bull run time
(iii) truer the imperative, if salvation was concerned, as opposed to simply money not paid, and the more vivid the imagination, sharper the end-stage ramp
gold to 6000 is ridiculous ... ly low
gold to 8000 is for sure
gold to 10,000 is as good as in the spending bag
gold to 12,000? depends on what actually happens in greece over the next few months and how well the cities appear to burn
the gold run has so far been tepid at best, just a gentle incline
the only reasons folks shout bubble are
(i) they do not have gold
(ii) paper fell out of bed and ended up in the bottom of the cliff
1999 Dec 31st USD 288/oz
2000 Dec 29th USD 274/oz -6%
2001 Dec 31st USD 279/oz +3%
2002 Dec 31st USD 348/oz +25%
2003 Dec 31st USD 416/oz +20%
2004 Dec 31st USD 438/oz +5%
2005 Dec 30th USD 519/oz +18%
2006 Dec 29th USD 638/oz +24%
2007 Dec 31st USD 833/oz +31%
2008 Dec 31st USD 889/oz +7%
2009 Dec 31st USD 1,095/oz +23%
2010 Dec 31st USD 1,421/oz +30%
2011 Dec 31st USD 1,567/oz +10%
2012 Oct 21st USD 1,721/oz +10%
bubbles do not look like this below ...
bubble, if asymmetrical, looks like ...
or, if symmetrical, looks like
bre-x pure bull
start of bull: march 25th 1995 @ 0.21/shr
end of bull: may 27th, 1996 @ 28.15/shr
all-in bull-gain: 27.94/shr
elapsed bull run time: 14 months
start of bull-run-end-stage: 0.8 x 14 months = 11 months, or end february 1996
price @ 20th february 1996: 13.8/shr, so bull gain to that date out of total bull gain was (13.8-0.21) / (28.15-0.21) = 48%
i am guessing bre-x was particularly infectious and virulent and therefore investors were particularly enthusiastic, and also given its short 3-months fuse to flame-out, a 52% gain from 'end-stage bull' to flame-out is very respectable.
bre-x chart
vestas windy bull
start of bull: march 3rd 2003 @ 36/shr
end of bull: august 25th 2008 @ 692/shr
all-in bull-gain: 656/shr
elapsed bull run time: 5 years and 5 months, or 65 months
start of bull-run-end-stage: 0.8 x 65 months = 52 months, or 4 years and 4 months, or end june 2007
price @ end june 2007: 364/shr, so bull gain to that date out of total bull gain was (365-36) / (692-36) = 50%
not as close to the usual government work, but still materially relevant, given that vestas bubble was not a global bubble for the masses, but only for freaky new energy connoisseurs
toll brothers pen
start of bull: november 1990 @ 0.56/shr (after meandering for years, finally leaving the steady-state price behind and never looked back)
end of bull: july 2005 @ 55.42/shr (needle all-time high)
all-in bull-gain: 55/shr (do not quibble over the odd cents!)
elapsed bull run time: bang-on 176 months
start of bull-run-end-stage: 141th months (11 years and 9 months) from inception, or end august 2002, (by definition)
tol price in end august 2002: 12.50/shr, and as percentage of total bull gain, approx 12/55 = 22% of total eventual all-in bull-gain
much closer than the usual government work
almost bang ^$#@%23 on
yahoo bull moo
start of bull: january 3rd 1997 @ 0.77/shr (after meandering for years, finally leaving the steady-state price behind and never looked back)
end of bull: january 3rd 2000 @ 118.75/shr (needle all-time high)
all-in bull-gain: 118/shr (do not quibble over the two cents!)
elapsed bull run time: bang-on 36 months
start of bull-run-end-stage: 28.8th months from inception, or end may 1999, (by definition)
yahoo price in end may 28 1999: between 37/shr, and as percentage of total bull gain, approx 37/118 = 31% of total eventual all-in bull-gain
From: J
Sent: Sunday, October 21, 2012 7:20 AM
Subject: Re: Comments - Week of October 15 - fear bubbles trump greed bubbles
hello grant, thank you for the reminder here zerohedge.com that is the story
that be behind the stories, and indicating where we are at the prologue stage,
as indicated by, for example abc.net.au this ...
Nugget photo excites Goldfields prospectors
Updated Fri Oct 19, 2012 2:53pm AEDT
 Photo: This photo of what is being touted as a 20 to 30 kilogram gold nugget found in the Goldfields has caused excitement in the prospecting community. (Supplied)
A photo of a large gold nugget believed to have been found near Kalgoorlie-Boulder is creating much excitement in the gold mining community.
The nugget is said to weigh up to 60 kilograms, with an estimated value of around $1.6 million.
No-one has claimed ownership and the photograph's origin is unknown.
Rumours of big gold finds in the area are not uncommon but rarely verified.
However, in 2010 the Ausrox Gold Nugget, weighing more than 23 kilograms, was discovered with a metal detector in the Eastern Goldfields.
Acting Superintendent of Goldfields Police Darren Seivwright says police are yet to confirm the report.
"It's enormous and you hear rumours of weights from anywhere between 27 kilos to 60 kilos," he said.
"If that is a 60 kilo chunk of gold, that is a significant find.
"If it is, I wish it were mine."
Topics: gold, perth-6000, kalgoorlie-6430
First posted Fri Oct 19, 2012 12:46pm AEDT |
