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Politics : Politics for Pros- moderated
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To: i-node who wrote (515595)10/22/2012 12:14:27 AM
From: Nadine Carroll3 Recommendations  Read Replies (1) of 793928
 
One point Jay Severin has made on the radio over and over is that pollsters who use a turnout model usually base it on the last national election, i.e. the midterms. But this time, most of the polls have samples closer to 2008 than 2010. The main exceptions in national polls is Rasmussen. But historically, the turnout at Presidential elections is usually pretty close to the preceding midterm. Turnout was +0 D in 2010. Which means that any sample which is more than +4 D at the outside is over-sampling Dems.
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