Remember when I said this?
Reply 263
Message 2548564
People, when people say something that you disagree with, you've
got to prove your case! Well, now, I am happy to say that I was perhaps initially over pessimistic.
I said RNTK would likely post a loss of $2.3 million for the next
fiscal year. Well, I belive I included in that figure around $1.9 million
of preferred interest expense. That was a mistake since most of the preffered stock has already been converted into common shares. This brings my optimistic fiscal 1998 estimate to a loss of $400,000.
Also, if you look at the amended 10Q or 10K that was issued 10/31/97, it explains the licensing fees and royalty fees to be generated from GTL.
Licensee fee $2,000 per barrel of capacity of plant
recognized over three periods 1/3 each period. period 1) delivery of engineering plans of plant; 2) delivery of the conversion chamber (machinery); 3) after the plant is operating for 60 days.
I had originally said it was something like $1000) per barrel of capacity.
That means total licensing fees from the 350 Indian plant is
350 barrels x $2,000 = $700,000.
This isn't verbatim from the 10K/10Q but it is roughly correct.
Plus royalties from the India plan per barrel is $2.00.
I had originally stated something like $1.00.
So, I am happy to say, I made a mistake.
The 10K or 10Q also said that the company will issue preferred stock from private placements to fund operations if needed. So expect
some further dilution, but if we are looking at a $400,000 loss, perhaps minimal or none preferred stock will have to be issued. That loss includes depreciation, so the actual cash loss is actually lower. I've forgotten what depreciation for the co is, but I think it could be something like $300,000 per year. So actual cash loss of about $100,000. That's pretty much break-even in my book.
This info has been sitting there since 10/31. Guys, you gotta argue with people like me by digging up info that is beneficial to all. Lynching doesn't work.
That is partially why I added to my position last week. RNTK story didn't change, but my understanding of it did! Plus, I am more optimistic that RNTK has a serious product here. If it does not get a Texaco deal, that will be bad. But it will not kill the company's chances like I thought it would. It will slow them down, but others will probably step in at some point. Plus the company is not hemoraging money like I thoughg it was. This company is seriously looking like it
is getting its act together to maintain funding for operations while negotiating a JV deal. Plus now we have a major instiutional shareholder, Bankers Trust. Perhaps more will follow.
So I am a happier RNTK shareholder now. Looking forward to the months/years ahead...
Schopenhauer |
