Daily Presidential Tracking Poll
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Saturday, October 27, 2012
The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Saturday shows Mitt Romney attracting support from 50% of voters nationwide, while President Obama earns the vote from 46%. Two percent (1%) prefer some other candidate, and another two percent (2%) are undecided. This is the fifth consecutive day that Romney has been at the 50% level of support. He has enjoyed a three- or four-point edge on each of those days. See daily tracking history.
Matchup results are updated daily at 9:30 a.m. Eastern (sign up for free daily e-mail update).
Check out our review of last week’s key polls to see “What They Told Us.”
New polling shows that the race is tied in Wisconsin, a result confirmed by the fact that the Badger State is receiving visits from Obama, Romney, Paul Ryan and Joe Biden. The importance of this state in the Electoral College battle is hard to overstate. Scott Rasmussen suggests in his weekly newspaper column that Wisconsin May Be the New Ohio this year. That’s a startling result given that the president won Wisconsin by 14 points in 2008.
Romney is up two in Florida, moving that state back into the Toss-Up column. The Rasmussen Reports Electoral College projections now show the president with 237 Electoral Votes and Romney 206. The magic number needed to win the White House is 270. Eight states with 95 Electoral College votes remain Toss-ups. In addition to Florida, the battleground states are Colorado, Iowa, Nevada, New Hampshire, Ohio, Virginia, and Wisconsin.
New polling from North Carolina continues to show Romney with a six-point lead in the Tar Heel State. The president is up five in Pennsylvania.
The Pennsylvania Senate race is now a surprising Toss-Up. The Rasmussen Reports Senate Balance of Power rankings project that Democrats will end up with 47 Senate seats, the Republicans 47. These totals include four states leaning towards the Democrats and four leaning to the GOP. Other than Pennsylvania, there are five remaining Toss-Ups: Connecticut, Massachusetts, Montana, Virginia and Wisconsin.
The economy, the debates and the Electoral College were the topics on this week’s edition of What America Thinks, Scott Rasmussen’s new weekly television show. Joining Scott to discuss the foreign policy issues of Election 2012 are Terra Lawson-Remer of the Council on Foreign Relations and Michael Balboni, the former head of homeland security for New York. The show is seen on more than 60 stations nationwide.
If you’d like Scott to speak to your organization, meeting or conference, please contact Premiere Speakers.
(Presidential Job Approval Data Below)
A president’s job approval rating is one of the best indicators for assessing his chances of reelection. Typically, the president’s job approval rating on Election Day will be close to the share of the vote he receives. Currently, 47% of voters say they at least somewhat approve of the president's job performance. Fifty-two percent (52%) at least somewhat disapprove ( see trends).
Twenty-four percent (24%) believe today’s children will be better off than their parents. That’s a depressingly low number, but the most optimistic assessment measured in years.
Thirty-seven percent (37%) of voters believe the nation is currently heading in the right direction.
The housing market is looking a little stronger. Fifty-five percent (55%) of homeowners now believe their home is worth more than the mortgage.
Rasmussen Reports is a media company whose work is followed by millions on a wide variety of platforms. In addition to the new TV show, we regularly release our work at RasmussenReports.com, through a daily email newsletter, a nationally syndicated radio news service, an online video service and a weekly newspaper column distributed by Creators Syndicate.
Rasmussen Reports polling tends to show less volatility than other polls for a variety of reasons. In 2008, we showed virtually no change during the final 40 days of the campaign. Then-candidate Obama was between 50% and 52% in our polling every single day. He generally held a five- or six-point lead, occasionally bouncing up to an eight-point advantage and only once falling below a four point-lead. This stable assessment of the race is consistent with the reality of what we know about voter behavior. Obama won the election by a 53% to 46% margin.
To get a sense of longer-term Job Approval trends for the president, Rasmussen Reports compiles our tracking data on a full month-by-month basis.
(Approval Index data below)
Intensity of support or opposition can have an impact on campaigns. Currently, 33% of the nation's voters Strongly Approve of the way Obama is performing as president. Forty-three percent (43%) Strongly Disapprove, giving him a Presidential Approval Index rating of -10 ( see trends).
Platinum Members can review additional information from the tracking poll on a daily basis.
During midterm elections, intensity of support can have a tremendous impact on turnout. That was demonstrated in 2010 when Republicans and unaffiliated voters turned out in large numbers to express opposition to the Obama administration’s policies. However, in presidential election years, there is a smaller impact on turnout. Still, all indications so far for Election 2012 suggest that Republicans are more engaged and more likely to turn out.
(More below)
Rasmussen Reports has been a pioneer in the use of automated telephone polling techniques, but many other firms still utilize their own operator-assisted technology ( see methodology). Pollsters for Presidents Jimmy Carter and Bill Clinton have cited our " unchallenged record for both integrity and accuracy." During Election 2008, Rasmussen Reports projected that Barack Obama would defeat John McCain by a 52% to 46% margin. Obama was 53% to 46%. In 2004, Rasmussen Reports was the only firm to project the vote totals for both candidates within half a percentage point. Learn more about the Rasmussen Reports track record over the years.
Daily tracking results are collected via telephone surveys of 500 likely voters per night and reported on a three-day rolling average basis. To reach those who have abandoned traditional landline telephones, Rasmussen Reports uses an online survey tool to interview randomly selected participants from a demographically diverse panel. The margin of sampling error for the full sample of 1,500 Likely Voters is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Results are also compiled on a full-week basis and crosstabs for full-week results are available for Platinum Members. |
